Scott McPherson's Web Presence

 China has a major problem looming on its horizon, and it is found at the intersection of the 2008 Summer Olympics and H5N1. Simply put, the Chinese know that any ill-timed outbreak of H5N1 in poultry -- coupled with any simultaneous human infections, particularly tourists and/or athletes -- could irreparably harm the nation's economy if it occurs during the run-up to the games, or, even worse, during the Games themselves.

H5N1 junkies may recall the outbreak of bird flu in poultry in northern China's Shanxi Province last summer. The outbreak -- almost certainly Clade 2.3, a.k.a. "Fujian" H5N1 -- happened in the center of a conglomerate of seven busy historic tourist centers. This accompanied a human case in fabled Guangdong Province, in south China near Hong Kong. The Chinese moved with great swiftness to put down the outbreak.

 All this activity set off what I call the Chinese government's "FDI Meter," FDI being the initials for Foreign Direct Investment. The Chinese learned from the SARS epidemic in 2003 that to deceive the world had disastrous economic consequences for the emerging economic power. As chronicled in Karl Greenfield's excellent SARS history China Syndrome (required reading for all influenza aficionados), China lost tens of billions of dollars virtually overnight. There were a number of very brave (braver than any of us, I assure you) Chinese doctors and political dissidents who dared leak the presence of a new and deadly virus to the world. Once the FDI exodus had begun, brand-new Chinese leader Hu Jintao had all the ammunition he needed to open up the nation's dialogue and also use SARS as the method of eliminating his predecessor Jiang Zemin's corrupt and old-line Party leaders, who were ultimately responsible for what I call Mayor Larry Vaughn Syndrome (Murray Hamilton's role in Jaws). Hu's ability to both open up his nation's true situation and simultaneously remove his potential political opposition was the first glimpse at his capabilities and ingenuity. Hu ain't no dummy.

So the CINO Chinese (Communist In Name Only) know, from previous experience, that the presence of a fatal disease, coupled with a clamp-down of media, spells economic TROUBLE.

Let's fast-forward to today's disclosure that in Guangdong Province, the Chinese are taking absolutely no chances. From the People's Daily Online:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/6265756.html

With 323 days to go before the Opening Ceremonies, expect more of these quick responses in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics. And isn't it telling that you can get better avian flu information from a Communist Chinese press service than from 99% of the American news media? Maybe if OJ caught bird flu.... that would solve many problems!