Scott McPherson's Web Presence

Yet again, a mighty tip of the cap to the intrepid blogger at birdflunewsflash.com, a site living up to its domain name.  The site reports that the government of Bali has decided to call in the spin doctors and will filter all news regarding human and bird H5N1 infections.

The link to the blog is here, http://birdflunewsflash.wordpress.com/2007/08/29/bali-to-censor-news-about-the-current-bird-flu-outbreak/

and the link to the Jakarta Post story is here. Could we put these intrepid Jakarta Post staff writers up for a global Pulitzer?  http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailbali.asp?fileid=20070829.D08&irec=1

Now back to the analysis.

It seems Bali is taking the Mayor Larry Vaughn approach to their new bird flu situation.  That, of course, is to ignore the problem and try to spin its way out of it.  Let me pull some quotable quotes from the story.

The administration's spokesperson, Anak Agung Bagus Netra, on Tuesday said Governor Dewa Beratha had ordered all information regarding bird flu be delivered only by the public relations department.

"We are talking about a new outbreak here. We can't have (ill-informed) people speaking about it on behalf of the administration. This is about Bali's image. These days any information can fly overseas in a second," he told The Jakarta Post.

OK, so the spin doctors have now used the word outbreak.  I don't know if we would consider the Bali cases/deaths an outbreak just yet, but the Bali government seems perfectly content to accelerate the danger themselves. You've got ill-informed people speaking for the government now. Reading on:

Farmers are questioning new poultry regulations issued by the administration in an effort to eradicate H5N1 from the province. Bali deputy governor Alit Kesuma Kelakan last Sunday hinted at the idea of culling all fowl on the island, without elaborating on compensation for farmers.

Meanwhile, Udayana University virologist Ngurah Mahardika suggested that tourist destinations such as Kuta, Sanur and Nusa Dua be free from fowl, following the rapid spread of bird flu virus on the island.

"This is a better move than simply taking chicken off menus," Ngurah told the Post over the weekend.

The de-fowling of Bali will place local farmers directly at odds with tourist officials, hoteliers and restaurateurs.  Killing poultry without compensation is a prime factor in the re-emergence of H5N1 in flocks, according to multiple sources all over the planet.  Witness the laughable escapade in Egypt just last year, where farmers successfully and clandestinely moved a thousand chickens across town under the noses of Egyptian government cullers.  What Woody Allen or Mel Brooks could have done with that scene!  So Bali civic leaders had better pony up the money for the soon-to-be-dead chickens and ducks.

Ngurah said the human-fowl population density in Bali, especially in Denpasar, made the region prone to a bird flu outbreak. Lagging precautionary measures, Ngurah said, could help the virus spread and develop more quickly, thereby increasing the threat of a pandemic on the island.

By my count as of 4PM EDT on the 29th of August, a total of 11 people have been hospitalized with suspected H5N1 infections on Bali.  Four have died, and five have been released.  Two remain in hospital -- admitted in the past 48 hours.  Two of the four deaths are absolutely H5N1, and the index case -- the daughter of one of the dead -- died and was cremated before tests were able to be conducted.  It is strongly assumed she was infected with H5N1 and gave the virus to her 29 year-old mother, who in turn died and was buried (photo at left).  The fourth death is still to be resolved.  Whether or not the world gets the truth may be up to the Indonesian Health Minister, and we already know which side she is on. 

Additionally, thousands of poultry are being culled as we speak, as the Bali fathers desperately try to salvage their tourist season.  I certainly hope a secondary vector has not been established on the island yet.  Perhaps Bali should swab the throats of their housecats, too.

Dr. Henry Niman frequently utters an excellent quote:  "H5N1 does not read press releases."  Never has this been more appropriate than with this latest complication from Bali.