Scott McPherson's Web Presence

 China has a major problem looming on its horizon, and it is found at the intersection of the 2008 Summer Olympics and H5N1. Simply put, the Chinese know that any ill-timed outbreak of H5N1 in poultry -- coupled with any simultaneous human infections, particularly tourists and/or athletes -- could irreparably harm the nation's economy if it occurs during the run-up to the games, or, even worse, during the Games themselves.

H5N1 junkies may recall the outbreak of bird flu in poultry in northern China's Shanxi Province last summer. The outbreak -- almost certainly Clade 2.3, a.k.a. "Fujian" H5N1 -- happened in the center of a conglomerate of seven busy historic tourist centers. This accompanied a human case in fabled Guangdong Province, in south China near Hong Kong. The Chinese moved with great swiftness to put down the outbreak.

 All this activity set off what I call the Chinese government's "FDI Meter," FDI being the initials for Foreign Direct Investment. The Chinese learned from the SARS epidemic in 2003 that to deceive the world had disastrous economic consequences for the emerging economic power. As chronicled in Karl Greenfield's excellent SARS history China Syndrome (required reading for all influenza aficionados), China lost tens of billions of dollars virtually overnight. There were a number of very brave (braver than any of us, I assure you) Chinese doctors and political dissidents who dared leak the presence of a new and deadly virus to the world. Once the FDI exodus had begun, brand-new Chinese leader Hu Jintao had all the ammunition he needed to open up the nation's dialogue and also use SARS as the method of eliminating his predecessor Jiang Zemin's corrupt and old-line Party leaders, who were ultimately responsible for what I call Mayor Larry Vaughn Syndrome (Murray Hamilton's role in Jaws). Hu's ability to both open up his nation's true situation and simultaneously remove his potential political opposition was the first glimpse at his capabilities and ingenuity. Hu ain't no dummy.

So the CINO Chinese (Communist In Name Only) know, from previous experience, that the presence of a fatal disease, coupled with a clamp-down of media, spells economic TROUBLE.

Let's fast-forward to today's disclosure that in Guangdong Province, the Chinese are taking absolutely no chances. From the People's Daily Online:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/6265756.html

With 323 days to go before the Opening Ceremonies, expect more of these quick responses in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics. And isn't it telling that you can get better avian flu information from a Communist Chinese press service than from 99% of the American news media? Maybe if OJ caught bird flu.... that would solve many problems!

Having been raised on a steady diet of black and white 1950s-era science fiction movies, you will now understand my excitement at the following story (tempered by concern about the health of the villagers and authorities), courtesy of the Guardian Unlimited (UK):

Peru meteorite crash causes 'mystery illness'

The Chinese disclosed this past weekend that some 30,000-plus ducks are headed for the incinerator and/or big burial pit in Guangdong Province.  Almost 10,000 ducks died between September 5 and 13 in Guangzhou's Panyu District and a sampling tested positive for H5 virus.  The authorities moved swiftly to contain the outbreak in poultry.  http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-29548020070915

But The Standard, a Hong Kong newspaper, is also reporting that at least 9,800 of those ducks in question had previously received a vaccination against the H5N1 virus!  Quoting from The Standard,

According to Guangdong Animal Epidemic Prevention Center director Yu Yedong, the 9,800 ducks that died at Sixian village had been vaccinated. But he added the first vaccination could only be 65 percent effective, while a second shot would have made it 90 percent.

He believed the birds were infected after the first shot. The deaths led to a mass culling of 32,600 ducks on Friday in an attempt to contain the outbreak.

Chinese bird flu vaccination attempts have been very controversial and have inadvertently put the entire world at risk of infection.  Just last year, the disclosures came that the Chinese government had mixed the M2 inhibitor Amantadine with its H5N1 poultry vaccine.  This. of course, led to H5N1's acquired resistance to Amantadine, the first antiviral used against influenza A some 20+ years ago.  Amantadine prevents influenza's M2 protein coat from dissolving. 

Just not any more: Seasonal influenza is Amantadine-resistant, but China's unwise mass use of the drug in chickens and ducks guaranteed that H5N1 would develop resistance prematurely.  So a front-line antiviral, cheap and plentiful, was summarily taken off the table by the Chinese.  Thanks, guys.  And we thought The Return of Lead Paint in Toys was bad!

Anyway, back to the story: The Guangdong ducks got the first shot, but were infected before the second shot could be administered.  So two things have happened:  First, these ducks only had a 65% chance of surviving an H5N1 attack.  According to the USDA, ducks are usually harvested between eight and sixteen weeks http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Fact_Sheets/Duck_&_Goose_from_Farm_to_Table/index.asp . So despite the vaccination, more than 65% of the vaccinated ducks (it's more like 98%) got sick and died. 

Second, H5N1 gains a measure of resistance to the vaccine; it is allowed to "drift" and mutate, which concerns Dr Ho Pak-leung, an infectious diseases expert at Hong Kong University.  He stated there were worries the virus had mutated or the vaccine had not been effective.   This either means the vaccine was ineffective, or the virus has drifted beyond the vaccine's ability to protect.  Either way, it is not good news.

H5N1 moves from wild birds to poultry and back again, with humans somewhere in between, depending on locale.  And as we all know, influenza is an extremely resilient and "smart" virus:  Pretty impressive for something that many scientists do not even want to classify as a life form!  The bottom line is that we can expect similar vaccination attempts to fail, as the virus gains intelligence in its RNA and drifts further.

Other bloggers have noted the appearance of the BBC pandemic influenza documentary/drama "Pandemic," part of its science series called "Horizons." Pity the show is not broadcast on BBC America, because it is the most chilling treatise on the subject of pandemic influenza that I have ever seen, and it needs to be seen by as many people as possible.  The link to the BBC Horizons Pandemic page can be found at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/pandemic/ .

The entire 90-minute documentary can be seen at this link:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7443717071229476088&q=pandemic+duration%3Along&total=73&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=5

Back to the show.  The program shifts between interviews with several scientists and healthcare professionals, while giving a fictional backstory about three individuals.  They are a Cambodian man at the wrong place at the decidedly wrong time; an American businessman returning from a Hawaiian meeting with Chinese counterparts; and a young British woman. 

The BBC writers splice in factual commentary from such experts as influenza rock star Dr. John Oxford in London; Dr. Gregory Poland, Professor of Medicine at the Mayo Clinic;  Dr. Jim Robertson of the UK's National Institute for Biological Standards and Control; and several other experts, including a doctor from Georgia (that's Georgia as in Go Bulldogs!).

Of all the commentary, Poland's and Oxford's are the most chilling.  Oxford has been doing influenza research for decades, and belongs to that too-small cadre of global experts that includes Dr. Robert Webster and Dr. Graeme Laver. Oxford's comments can be savored via this program; his insight into the link between the 1918 pandemic and the subsequent pandemic of encephalitis lethargica (as shown in the film "Awakenings") is virtually bulletproof. Here is some advice from Oxford, directly from the BBC Website:

I don't think stockpiling four months of food and water is necessary - I think that would be overreacting. But what you can do is have a strategy and be aware of how the virus spreads. So in the event of a pandemic, it might for example make sense not to go to work during rush hour to avoid crowded tube trains. Or if a friend calls and says he's feeling ill, it might not be the best idea to pop round to see him straight away, and so on.

On any one day, about five per cent of the community will be ill, so 95% of the population will still be perfectly capable of going about their daily business. In fact, one of my biggest concerns is the worried well - people who will lock themselves away during a pandemic. That could amount to a huge number. And if that happens, and everybody goes into panic mode, the economy will collapse.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at the University of London

 We get so wrapped around the axle of how many people will be sick -- we all use the figures 30% and 40% interchangeably -- that it is important to remember that all 30% will not be sick all at the same time.  Those figures are aggregates.  So Professor Oxford's belief that on any given day during a pandemic only 5% of the population is actually too ill to report to work is significant.  As Oxford notes, the "worried well" are the ones we must convince to come to work, unless they are tending to ill loved ones or watching small children.  Also interesting is his statement that he continues to keep the M2 inhibitor Amantadine in his icebox.  Amantadine is an antiviral designed to stop the influenza A's M2 lipid coat from dissolving as it enters a cell.  Unfortunately, virtually all Influenza As -- including H5N1 -- are Amantadine-resistant.  But he figures it's worth a try anyway.

What separates this BBC documentary/drama from others, such as the excellent National Geographic piece from 2005 and the 2006 ABC TV movie "Fatal Contact - Bird Flu in America," are the videos.  I had never seen still photos or video of the dying/dead tigers at the Bangkok Zoo in 2006, nor had I ever seen the actual die-off at China's Qinghai Lake in April-May 2005, nor had I ever seen actual newsreel footage of post-Spanish Flu sufferers of encephalitis lethargica. The photos and videos are outstanding.  Also chilling are the words from Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist and forecaster Dr. Catherine Macken.  Dr. Macken's words should be taken very seriously.  She recounts how, in the aftermath of 9/11, the US government charged Los Alamos to come up with the most plausible bioattack upon Americans. Homeland Security was expecting anthrax, or maybe smallpox, or some other pathogen.  Instead, LANL told Homeland the most likely scenario was an H5N1 pandemic. 

If you only have one opportunity to get someone to watch a documentary about H5N1, this BBC documentary is the one to watch.  It is absolutely superb. You can also download it to Sony PSP or iPOD video.

The WHO has confirmed the dreaded Ebola as the cause of the deaths of scores of villagers.  Some 166 deaths may or may not be linked to Ebola, but the confirmation of at least five deaths as being caused by the hemorrhagic fever caues one to reasonably conclude that many other deaths will be attributed to the disease.  Ebola has a 90% Case Fatality Rate (CFR).

The following story is from Brietbart.com as reported by wire service AFP: