Scott McPherson's Web Presence

Everyone who has read this blogsite for any duration of time knows of my quest to get the WHO to raise the pandemic threat level from 3 to 4.

Two days ago, and for a wildly different reason, the WHO has seen fit to do just that.  Now there is speculation that the WHO is about to raise that pandemic threat level again, to Phase 5.

I think that is a bad idea.  I will wait while you pick up your jaw from the floor.

OK, let's talk.

It took a mammoth event to get the WHO off the schnide in the first place.  Now, with the pandemic alert level at 4 of 6, I think we should let that level sink in a bit.  The WHO cannot be seen as crying wolf, especially if there is no evidence that the virus is causing massive, exponential infections beyond those unfortunates who recently traveled to Mexico.

We will see evidence of these expanded infections quickly if they are to come.  Evidence of expanded infections would mean the virus is causing widespread infections.  I don't mean an infection or two in a town that does not go beyond a person or a family.  I mean infections that go from 5 to 100 in a couple of days.

A lack of same would mean this virus may have temporarily lost some of its bluster.  "Temporarily" could be a few days, a few weeks or the virus could lay dormant until the late summer or early fall -- just like 1918.

I just don't think we are seeing the groundswell (yet) in cases that would signify a raising to Phase 5.  If -- and I mean IF -- the WHO raises the threat level, it could be because there are so many nations reporting a pocket of cases in a number of countries.  But there is so much surveillance going on now that evidence of a rapid expansion of cases beyond those people who recently traveled to Mexico would be quickly forthcoming.

 We are also not seeing an exponential increase in Mexican cases.  If this virus was lethal, we would see a continuing acceleration of extreme respiratory distress, and an increase in deaths.  In the past two days, these Mexican cases haveapparently slowed down.  This is decidedly good news and we all certainly hope that  this trend continues.

Everyone is prepositioning assets in the field.  We have anecdotal evidence of increased Federal activity right here in Florida, and I am certain other states have similar initiatives underway.  Everyone is on alert and on their guard.  So let's let Phase 4 do its thing -- what it was designed to do -- and get everyone moving to prepare for Phases 5 and 6.  Tell people what to buy and how to recognize infection.  But let's not pull that Phase 5 trigger unless and until the number of follow-on cases have justified the acceleration.

Of course, there is always the possibility that things are afoot that no one knows about.  But I do not think that anyone knows enough about this virus at this point that would justify a move to Phase 5.  Scientists and researchers are having trouble why this virus has changed its business model to sicken humans, when there are no apparent major changes to be seen in either the HA or NA strands. 

One more thing:  because of the Guillain-Barre side effect problems back in 1976, the government and vaccine makers had better make damn sure there is nothing in that syrup to prompt the kind of anomaly that occurred in 1976.  And putting it in the trivalent fall cocktail makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

Phase 5 is the equivalent of the Department of Homeland Security going to Code Red.  In both cases, the only next available step is "Holy *#&#!"

Phase 5 triggers a number of corporate and government responses, and they all cost money and effort.  Let's not move to Phase 5 unless there is demonstrable, defensible evidence that this virus is causing massive infections growing out of those limited number of clusters.  It is a huge move and should not be taken lightly. 

The statement that just came out of Houston clarified the circumstances surrounding the first death in the United States of a person due to swine influenza.  Initial news reports said the child was Mexican and the family took the child to the US for treatment.

Wrong.

The child was Mexican, but the family was visiting relatives in Brownsville, Texas when the child suddenly became very ill.  The child wound up in Houston and died there.

This disclosure will, as you can imagine, create far more questions than answers.  This child was shedding virus all the while he was here.  Let's watch and learn.

A 23-month toddler has died in Texas of swine H1N1.  First reports indicate the child is Mexican, and was brought to the US for treatment.

Reports are very fluid right now, but the death is attributed to the time spent traveling to the US to seek treatment, rather than the actual severity of the virus. 

I mention that the child is Mexican because this is not, apparently, the case of an American dying of an infection in, say, Cleveland.  This is a person of Mexican nationality who was brought across the border in the mistaken belief that treatment in America was a better decision than staying in Mexico.  This decision doomed this child much more than the severity of the virus.

One reason why I am an information technology professional is that I could not "do biology." Sure, I could dissect frogs with the best of them, but I just was not emotionally equipped to be a biologist.

Same thing with astronomy: When I found out you had to actually do math to be an astronomer, I was so disappointed.

Nonetheless, over the past three years, I have tried to stay in the same room with biologists and geneticists who unravel the mysteries of cleavage points (and I tell you I have an entirely different definition of that!), genetic sequencing and etc.

That is one big reason why I appreciate the reports that come out of Harvard's proMED email updates. And one today casts a big shadow over the data we have been fed regarding the genetic background of Mexican Swine Flu.

Who here can remember who originally said this thing was an avian/human/swine hybrid? According to Dr. Raul Rabadan of Columbia University, that information is wrong wrong WRONG. I quote from his proMED report:

The preliminary analysis using all the sequences in public databases

(NCBI) suggests that all segments are of swine origin. NA and MP seem related to Asian/European swine and the rest to North American swine

(H1N2 and H3N2 swine viruses isolated since 1998). There is also interesting substratification between these groups, suggesting a multiple reassortment.

We are puzzled about sources of information that affirm that the virus is a reassortment of avian, human and swine viruses. It is true that the H3N2 swine virus from 1998 and 1999 is a triple reassortant, but all the related isolates are found since then in swine.

All-RIGHTY then!   A scientific dust-up!  FIGHT! FIGHT!  It does beg the question of what this virus is, and how did apparently erroneous content get pushed out to the general public as gospel?

My recollection was that the source was attributed to be the CDC.  Maybe the WHO.  What this also tells me is that this virus is even more novel than novel.  A novel virus with human genes, depending on which gene segment they are located, also tells us if there is any shred of hope that humanity might have an immunity to this virus.  For example, some human genes on the hemagglutinin strand HA would give us some hope that some humans would be immune to the virus' cleavage point (God how I love to say "cleavage point" and not get slapped in the face for it!).

Anyway, I got sidetracked.  Sorry.  Back to the virus:  NA represents neuraminidase, the "escape artist" that allows the virus' clones to escape the hijacked cell.  MP refers to the surface protein that holds the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase spikes.

There had to be a genetic change that allowed for this virus to stop infecting pigs and start infecting humans big time.  I don't think anyone has found it yet.  But I sense that when they do, they will have unlocked quite a mystery whose dividends will be felt long after this virus has gone away.

You Twitterheads, or whatever you people call yourselves, can now get my comments and links on the 140-character social networking site.  I'm something like "@scottwmcpherson" or something like that.

You can also "follow me" from the link on the left side of this Blogsite.  Just scroll down to Twitter.

You'll get a lot of updates during the business day.  At night, I'm a normal human being again, reading Marvel comics, zombie novels or watching Fringe with the wife.  Isn't that what normal people do?  Well, we also watch American Idol (Adam's gonna win it) and Dancing with the Stars (Gilles/Lil' Kim tossup) so I'm not completely out there.....

Hurm.