Scott McPherson's Web Presence

Everyone who has read this blogsite for any duration of time knows of my quest to get the WHO to raise the pandemic threat level from 3 to 4.

Two days ago, and for a wildly different reason, the WHO has seen fit to do just that.  Now there is speculation that the WHO is about to raise that pandemic threat level again, to Phase 5.

I think that is a bad idea.  I will wait while you pick up your jaw from the floor.

OK, let's talk.

It took a mammoth event to get the WHO off the schnide in the first place.  Now, with the pandemic alert level at 4 of 6, I think we should let that level sink in a bit.  The WHO cannot be seen as crying wolf, especially if there is no evidence that the virus is causing massive, exponential infections beyond those unfortunates who recently traveled to Mexico.

We will see evidence of these expanded infections quickly if they are to come.  Evidence of expanded infections would mean the virus is causing widespread infections.  I don't mean an infection or two in a town that does not go beyond a person or a family.  I mean infections that go from 5 to 100 in a couple of days.

A lack of same would mean this virus may have temporarily lost some of its bluster.  "Temporarily" could be a few days, a few weeks or the virus could lay dormant until the late summer or early fall -- just like 1918.

I just don't think we are seeing the groundswell (yet) in cases that would signify a raising to Phase 5.  If -- and I mean IF -- the WHO raises the threat level, it could be because there are so many nations reporting a pocket of cases in a number of countries.  But there is so much surveillance going on now that evidence of a rapid expansion of cases beyond those people who recently traveled to Mexico would be quickly forthcoming.

 We are also not seeing an exponential increase in Mexican cases.  If this virus was lethal, we would see a continuing acceleration of extreme respiratory distress, and an increase in deaths.  In the past two days, these Mexican cases haveapparently slowed down.  This is decidedly good news and we all certainly hope that  this trend continues.

Everyone is prepositioning assets in the field.  We have anecdotal evidence of increased Federal activity right here in Florida, and I am certain other states have similar initiatives underway.  Everyone is on alert and on their guard.  So let's let Phase 4 do its thing -- what it was designed to do -- and get everyone moving to prepare for Phases 5 and 6.  Tell people what to buy and how to recognize infection.  But let's not pull that Phase 5 trigger unless and until the number of follow-on cases have justified the acceleration.

Of course, there is always the possibility that things are afoot that no one knows about.  But I do not think that anyone knows enough about this virus at this point that would justify a move to Phase 5.  Scientists and researchers are having trouble why this virus has changed its business model to sicken humans, when there are no apparent major changes to be seen in either the HA or NA strands. 

One more thing:  because of the Guillain-Barre side effect problems back in 1976, the government and vaccine makers had better make damn sure there is nothing in that syrup to prompt the kind of anomaly that occurred in 1976.  And putting it in the trivalent fall cocktail makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

Phase 5 is the equivalent of the Department of Homeland Security going to Code Red.  In both cases, the only next available step is "Holy *#&#!"

Phase 5 triggers a number of corporate and government responses, and they all cost money and effort.  Let's not move to Phase 5 unless there is demonstrable, defensible evidence that this virus is causing massive infections growing out of those limited number of clusters.  It is a huge move and should not be taken lightly.