Scott McPherson's Web Presence

The news media (to the extent they are not covering Britney Spears' underwear, marital problems or inbibing habits) have generated many stories regarding the recent release of the draft HHS vaccine distribution guidelines.

It is my pleasure to now talk about The Elephant In The Room that everyone has so convenienty neglected. 

This follows a telephone interview with Computerworld's Patrick Thibodeau.  Pat is one of the few reporters who habitually reports on avian influenza and its potential pandemic effect on the information technology sector.  Pat rang me up to get my opinion of the draft HHS vaccine guidelines.  Where does IT fit on the tiered ladder?  How would an organization determine where it is in the pecking order (sorry) for vaccine?

After breaking down the draft guidelines, I then spoke of that danged elephant.  It is a message that bears repeating over, and over, and over again.

A vaccine -- ANY vaccine, save possibly the prepandemic goulash that is cooking in (far too many) labs across the world -- will not be in your arm for at least six to eight months following the start of an influenza pandemic.  That is Wave Two, maybe even Wave Three of the pandemic, since we have no idea whatsoever how many waves the Next Pandemic will be, or how long it will take each wave to travel.  Even that six to eight month vaccine timeframe is for Tier A and B receipents.  Forget about the general public.  Vaccine will be trickling out with agonizing slowness. 

We also do not know if the virus will be moderate or severe (the report says in a light to moderate pandemic, don't even sweat the vaccine).  And we don't know if, like 1918, the second wave will be the killer.  Recall it was the third wave in 1919 that felled President Woodrow Wilson at the most sensitive stage of the armistice talks and, ultimately, set the stage for the Third Reich.    And remember that in 1976, with far more manufacturers and a Get Out of Court Free vaccine boo-boo cards courtesy of the Congress, they still had to throw out millions of doses of vaccine because the virus drifted during the manufacturing process.  There is no guarantee the same thing won't happen again.  Heck, it happens routinely today. 

So any organization that is seriously concerned about its place in the pecking order for vaccine is decidedly missing the point.  That point is that there will be a six to eight month window of incredible suffering, lost wages, declining economic news, hunger -- and death -- for many months prior to the availibility of vaccine.  That means organizations need to focus NOW on such basic things as hand sanitizer, gloves and masks.  They need to focus on Tamiflu if they can get it, but if they can't, then they need to focus elsewhere.  All need to focus on the things that Momma taught us -- hand washing, personal hygiene, and keeping a respectable distance from strangers.

The report is available as a PDF file from www.pandemicflu,gov, specifically at the following location: http://pandemicflu.gov/vaccine/prioritization.pdf .

I close with the recent words of former Surgeon General C. Everett Koop, who said: "We're fighting today's pandemic with the same tools we had one hundred years ago." 

Take those words to heart and prepare for what you can do today.