As of this writing, the WHO has finally proclaimed COVID-19 a true pandemic.  Anticlimactic to be sure, but final and now the P word has been uttered and we can get on with things.

The number of coronavirus cases in the United States has topped 4,660 as of this writing.  It was 1,300 when I began drafting this post a few days ago.  Meaning, we are just seeing the tip of the tip of the iceberg.  As we test, we find more cases.  This is as inevitable as the tides. We still do not know what the virus will ultimately look like and how it will behave.  It is trending toward the informed theory, so far:  roughly 8 in ten cases will be relatively mild; 2 in ten will be problematic, with a significant percentage of those cases headed straight to the ICU.  People ages 55 and older are the principal worry, with the most elderly and frail among us in frightful danger if they catch it.  Children are treated (so far) lightly by the virus, but speculation, led by former CDC director Thomas Frieden, is because these children are asymptomatic carriers of the virus itself. Sobering yet unproven thought.

Cases outside of China are giving us much more useful data.  Sputum harvested from German and Italian sufferers indicates that while "recovered" patients may still test positive, they are not contagious. Scientists are hovering around Day 8 as the day they stop being contagious.

Unfortunately, we are now seeing clusters turning to outbreaks in diverse areas of the United States.  The Greater Seattle area and New Rochelle, New York, are battling it out for numerical supremacy.  The approaches to combating the virus are as different as the two metropolitan areas.  Seattle, and King County as a whole, are using their world-class public health system and implementing strategies the Chinese deployed (minus dragging screaming people out of their homes at gunpoint). 

But the Washingtonians are facing more draconian measures.  A few days ago, the government of King County called upon all citizens to work from home, and asked all citizens ages 60 and older to stay in their homes. Now, just this morning, the Governor of Washington State has shut down all bars, restaurants and recreational facilities.

New York, on the other hand, has called out the National Guard and drawn a one-mile "containment zone" around the epicenter of their outbreak, a synagogue.  They have banned public gatherings.  The Guard will be used to decontaminate public buildings and public areas, deliver food to shut-ins, and assist in logistics.  I would have to assume they will also be filling in for essential government functions if absenteeism soars. 

The tri-state area that comprises New Jersey, New York and Connecticut are acting jointly to ban all public gatherings, period.  The lights are out on Broadway.  Bars and restaurants are open for take-out only. Gyms and fitness centers are shuttered. Schools closed, probably for at least a month. 

None of this is about the heat, so far.  I just wanted you to get up to date. 

Now the heat.  The Conventional Wisdom is that viruses hate the heat.  The moisture in the air, coupled with warmer temperatures, should literally knock the virus down.  Same theory as a hit baseball carries farther in Denver than it does in Atlanta.  Heat and humidity disrupt the ball's velocity, etc.

But that does not always ring true.  Almost every flu pandemic over the past 300 years has started outside of winter. And every virologist worth his or her salt is hedging bets, saying forthrightly and truthfully that we don't know anything about the resiliency of this virus. 

So here are some articles to consider.  First is a brand-new article from Business Insider.  In it, the publication draws upon the news of the recent infection of Tom Hanks and his wife as he was filming an Elvis movie (he plays Col. Tom Parker).  They were filming on Australia's Gold Coast, where the weather is a balmy 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Salt air and everything.

Then you look at the map of the world's COVID-19 cases, compiled so brilliantly by Johns Hopkins University. Look at all the cases in the Southern Hemisphere.  These cases are growing as the world's cases are growing.  

Last week, there was an excellent article in National Geographic, titled "Will warming temperatures slow the coronavirus outbreak?"  There is an abundance of evidence to support the belief.  People won't cluster together in hiding from the elements.  School will be out (at least hypothetically.  No one has yet, to my knowledge, posited the theory that the school year might be lengthened into the summer due to school closures, so I will posit that right now). And the virus will drop harmlessly to the ground, inert, to be mopped or vacuumed into obscurity.

But the opposing side also has compelling arguments. Theses are also based on scientific historical research.  Newbie viruses ignore the conventional wisdom.  They laugh at increased humidity and higher temperatures.  They play dead and subside, until the weather changes and they come roaring back to life.  The 1918 and 2009 pandemics are instructive.  The viruses in both pandemics appeared to disappear in late spring, only to come roaring back at the first sign of crisper air, more lethal and more infectious than ever.  Lethal and 2009 are not usually seen, but there are numerous cases of children succumbing to the virus.  So be very careful when you say the 2009 virus was not a killer.  Someone within earshot might vociferously disagree.  And another reason is that the virus has not burned through all its available hosts. That is precisely why we are socially distancing all over the place.  Deny the virus a host and it will go away.  Flatten the curve!

Another version of the same theories can be found here. 

But by far, the most instructive analysis of the topic can be found at the blogsite of Marc Lipsitch, DPhil
Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.  Dr. Lipsitch is a certified disease rock star and is very quotable.  His short answer to the question:

Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

His answer:

"Probably not."

He then proceeds to say why he doesn't believe it will not go away. From his essay:

For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own.  Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season. Changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission. Urgent for effective policy is to determine if children are important transmitters, in which case school closures may help slow transmission, or not, in which case resources would be wasted in such closures. 

So don't bet the farm on the virus taking a break during the summer.  And if it does, history says it probably will be back at the first sign of autumn, and it will be upset it was woken up.