Scott McPherson's Web Presence

University of Wisconsin-Madison virologist Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka is also a professor at the University of Tokyo. He is one of the world's top influenza and infectious disease researchers and, quite frankly, someone you better listen to.

Veteran readers of this blog know I have mentioned him from time to time, and have sometimes been critical of him. But that does not diminish my massive respect for him, nor does it diminish his formidable intellect and talent.  He's one of the best we've got ("we" being the Human Race).

He has just released a new study that the entire world needs to read and absorb. The new study was funded by grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, and the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Funding sources like these do not come easily and must be won with extremely hard work and superb science.

So do I have your attention? Good.

Dr. Kawaoka says the current swine H1N1, or H1N1v, or whatever it is we are supposed to call our resident pandemic virus, is reminiscent of the 1918 Spanish flu. Quoting directly from the press release:

In contrast with run-of-the-mill seasonal flu viruses, the H1N1virus exhibits an ability to infect cells deep in the lungs, where it can cause pneumonia and, in severe cases, death. Seasonal viruses typically infect only cells in the upper respiratory system.

"There is a misunderstanding about this virus," says Kawaoka, a professor of pathobiological sciences at the UW-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine and a leading authority on influenza. "People think this pathogen may be similar to seasonal influenza. This study shows that is not the case. There is clear evidence the virus is different than seasonal influenza."

The ability to infect the lungs, notes Kawaoka, is a quality frighteningly similar to those of other pandemic viruses, notably the 1918 virus, which killed tens of millions of people at the tail end of World War I. There are likely other similarities to the 1918 virus, says Kawaoka, as the study also showed that people born before 1918 harbor antibodies that protect against the new H1N1 virus.

And it is possible, he adds, that the virus could become even more pathogenic as the current pandemic runs its course and the virus evolves to acquire new features. It is now flu season in the world's southern hemisphere, and the virus is expected to return in force to the northern hemisphere during the fall and winter flu season.

Dr. Kawaoka's study mentions in elaborate detail the methodology used to acquire this evidence:

To assess the pathogenic nature of the H1N1 virus, Kawaoka and his colleagues infected different groups of mice, ferrets and non-human primates - all widely accepted models for studies of influenza - with the pandemic virus and a seasonal flu virus. They found that the H1N1 virus replicates much more efficiently in the respiratory system than seasonal flu and causes severe lesions in the lungs similar to those caused by other more virulent types of pandemic flu.

"When we conducted the experiments in ferrets and monkeys, the seasonal virus did not replicate in the lungs," Kawaoka explains. "The H1N1 virus replicates significantly better in the lungs."

The new study was conducted with samples of the virus obtained from patients in California, Wisconsin, the Netherlands and Japan.

OK, the short form:  Swine H1N1v is replicating deep in the lungs of victims, as did the 1918 pandemic virus (and as does H5N1 bird flu).   Kawaoka claims that the virus has every ability to become even deadlier as it wins its King of the Mountain excursion across the Southern Hemisphere.  Over 90% of all influenza in the Southern Hemisphere is swine H1, meaning the pandemic strain has officially won the  competition. What spoils of war will this flu acquire as it assimilates other, defeated flus?