Scott McPherson's Web Presence

When to really worry? No U.S. deaths yet but what does that mean? More deaths in Mexico. Do we go about everyday life and pretend that all is well? I'm just not sure what I need to be doing to protect my family.

The threat level going up isn't even disconcerting to me as much as the administration's hesitancy to close the borders (political reasons?) or put in stricter travel restrictions on air travel. I know that Revere at Effect Measure felt strongly that the horse was out of the barn (and, of course, it is), but restricting the amount of people in from Mexico would necessarily reduce the number of people who might carry the flu and spread it further. Logically, isn't some reduction in flow of people better than none?

I totally agree, and this has been my point since my first post yesterday. Right now we do not have a single death in the USA, which tells me that most of the cases so far have been of a milder strain. All it takes is for one Mexican with a fear of getting the fatal strain, but who already HAS the fatal strain and does not know it, to sneak into the USA. And before anyone can say, "OH Crap!", he has infected 10 people.

CLOSE THE DAMN BORDERS

Tim, how exactly do you propose to close the borders? Set National Guardsmen every 20 feet from Tijuana to Brownsville? It's not possible. Besides, the American cases were all people who travelled TO Mexico, not people who came in contact with Mexicans in America. What if one of the Canadian cases dies? Should we close that border too? Close all the airports, shipping lanes, ports?

There are cases in Canada, in Europe, in New Zealand. The State Department put out a warning today that Americans shouldn't travel to Mexico unless necessary. Other nations are warning their citizens not to travel to America.

This flu has probably been infecting people for more than a month now, and Mexico City isn't some backwater village; tens of thousands of people go through their airport every day, headed all over the world. That's the world as it is today. I understand your concern and I'm worried about this flu too, but what you're saying doesn't make any sense.

Merciless, I think you should apply for a job with Homeland Security. Witless folks like you with their heads in the sand are a shoe in to get hired.

Closing borders at checkpoints at the very least is indeed feasible and doable. Shutting down all airports in Mexico is also doable. Forbidding the travel of folks from the USA to Mexico is also doable. Shooting to kill anyone crossing into the country illegally also works well for me.

Will this be 100% effective. Of course not. Does that mean we should not do it? I suppose so, if you live in Lilliput. But at this point I believe any and all measures should be taken to control the spread as much as possible.

Got a problem with that?

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N27549227.htm

Oh, by the way, I am firmly convinced that the reason the borders are not being closed is due to the fact that Obama WANTS the flu to spread. That begs the other question. Why does Obama want the flu to spread? Think about it.....

Why is it that EU is forbidding travel to and from Mexico and the USA? Why is Russia doing the same? And our Messiah doesn't even want to close the borders? Follow the money...or in this case, the power. Who stands to benefit if there is a mass exodus of Mexicans into the USA? Who stands to benefit if this turns into a Pandemic?

Well hey....just what common sense dictates seems to be borne out by studies:

http://aircrewbuzz.com/2009/04/airline-travel-and-spread-of-flu.html

Money quote: "slowing the spread even for a few weeks might give public health officials a bit more time to put in place other measures to fight the disease."

I ask again, why NOT restrict air travel, at least in the short term, until the CDC/WHO gets a feel for what we're dealing with? When will this administration start protecting its citizens instead of saying "nothing to see here, folks"?

Amy, bless you for using the head God gave you! This is not rocket science, folks. If the house on fire is a total loss, you don't let the house burn to the ground, you try to contain it and put it out so that the houses next to it do not also catch on fire.

There is a reason the current administration wants to leave the borders open.

THEY ARE DYING IN MEXICO CITY BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATION:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15581198
I dunno, maybe it is the elevation that causes low humidity. Elevation makes pneumonia more deadly. Mexico City and San Luis Potosi have high elevations. Not so much Baja Mexico and IDK about Oaxaca, but the majority of deaths are Mexico City.
The origination in Mexico is a complicating factor, but people aren't dying because they are Mexican, they are dying because they live at high altitude in Mexico City. These cities would be most at risk if global Swine Flu outbreak: http://www.trivia-library.com/a/10-highest-elevation-cities.htm
The severely sickened women in California with a weakened immune system developed diarrhea but *not* pneumonia. If she lived at altitude I bet she would've died of pneumonia.

Still corrollaries with first Spanish Flu wave so want vaccine and want to wipe out this weak "wave" and/or animal reservoir ASAP to avoid replaying fall 1919 second wave.

So, Phil, do you think that the strain that seems so mild here in the USA would be killing people if they lived in places like New Mexico or Colorado, say, Denver, for example? That is an interesting take.

All,
As Rodney King would say: Can't we all just get along?

Anyway, there are some very, very good points in these comments. Yes, I thought the official reaction would be to engage in some rear-guard delaying action, trying to slow the spread of the disease at least so Webster, Kawaoka and others can study it and make suggestions. Also to try and ramp up a vaccine. So not restricting travel is part of that "cafeteria-style" planning that I condemn in my newest post.

VERY interesting call on the elevation of Mexico City! I am going to pass that along and cite it. I will send it to St. Jude for speculation. Perhaps that deals more with viral load at infection (lower humidity equaling greated viral inhalation and thus greater viral load) than the actual virulence of the disease.

Well done everyone!

Phillip Huggan,
I sent your comment to Osterholm and attributed it to you. I read the abstract and that is a great catch!

I commented elsewhere on this site that closing the borders would slow the spread of the disease. I cautioned that folks in Mexico would be fleeing en mass into the USA to "get away" from the flu, and not 24 hours later we have Mexicans coming into the USA from Mexico and dying here in the USA - this according to information coming out at Drudge. The borders should be ARMED TO THE TEETH and people trying to cross should be assumed to be "carriers" and shot on site. Again, not a very popular idea, but this country is committing suicide in an effort to NOT look like a racist nation.

See latest post. News reports were wrong, gee what a surprise! Kid's family was visiting relatives in Brownssville.

Really need to focus on the issue at hand. We can slam or praise Obama later.