Scott McPherson's Web Presence

When I ran Jeb Bush's statewide Y2K preparedness project, I worked closely with Craig Fugate, who at the time was Florida's #2 man for emergency management.  When his boss Joe Myers left, Craig slid into the chair and has led Florida's emergency efforts capably ever since. 

Craig is blunt and candid when he speaks, which is a rare and much-appreciated quality when it comes to public officials.  He does not mince words and his candor is welcomed.  He also does not sugar-coat things, which is why the Florida pandemic disaster drill -- the largest conducted by Florida government to date -- was designed to provoke more questions than answers.

For example:  Someone has either a) been doing his homework, or b) watching my numerous State government PowerPoints, or c) both a) and b), because the issue of 16,000 new orphans arose during the simulation.  How will Florida cope with 16,000 new orphans?  The answer was not forthcoming.  And that is fine for now:  As long as the question is asked in a public setting, the answer can come later.  Just get someone thinking about that and get back to him quickly.

Equally comforting in its bluntness was the estimate of 100,000 Floridians dead from pandemic influenza.  That is in line with HHS projections for a 2% case fatality rate.  Eighteen million Floridians, at a 30% attack rate, with a 2% CFR ..... right on line with the scenario.  There was no attempt to lower the CFR; no attempt at a happy ending. 

From my sources who attended the briefing (I was not invited, a protocol oversight because I am not in the Executive Branch anymore), the simulation was both extremely well-attended and very realistic.  My sources are informed because they understand the issue, having done their own research and having sat through my presentations. 

What was sad was the tabletop "death" of Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson (no, not that Bronson).  I have blogged about my friend before.  He is arguably the most informed elected official in the nation on avian flu.  And he took the step of hiring away USDA's top fowl veterinarian who helped manage the Delmarva Peninsula bird flu outbreak of a few years ago -- just for this very possibility. 

Bronson got the "death tap" during the exercise.  It is a Fugate trademark and creates the appropriate somber mood for the proceedings.  It reinforces the theme that happy endings are reserved for Disney movies.  No happy endings for Mr. Bronson.

The infection path itself was eeire, especially since the exercise was held on the very day the news broke of a possible human outbreak of H5N1 in North Sumatra:  Floridians returning from an Indonesian trip bring H5N1 with them.

Many eyes were opened during the exercise.  According to the Miami Herald, Governor Charlie Crist looked up at Fugate and asked, "Could this really happen?"

Fugate's measured response: ''Unfortunately, that's what science tells us. Do we want this to happen? Pray it never does. But we have to ask, what if it did?''

What if it did, indeed.

the Miami Herald story is at: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/breaking-news/story/631419.html .