Reveres of Effect Measure on the Chinese H2H case
Scott McPherson
in influenza and infectious diseases
|
3 Comments
While I am laboring away at a Computerworld blog (http:// blogs/computerworld.com/mcpherson), writing my latest ruminations on disaster preparedness, I hope you will read this most excellent post by the reveres at Effect Measure. You can read their latest missive at Bird flu: staying calm about panic.
The Reveres expand on the disclosure that the Chinese son-to-father H5N1 infections were, in fact H2H transmission. What the reveres accurately and capably seize upon is that while the scientific community used to belittle any claim of H2H as hogwash, they now collectively seem to say "No biggie, folks, yes, it's just another case of H2H, we get these all the time, move along."
This is exactly what I meant in my post about the H5N1 New Normal. Human-to-human transmission is no longer anything to fret about.
Well, as the Reveres state so elequently, if it's no biggie, then why the protestations not to panic? Do I need to recite Hamlet again? After reading and enjoying the prose from the Reveres, please re-read my post titled "Shakespeare in Pakistan."
Reader Comments (3)
Interestingly, another background event was overlooked yesterday. The explosion in a nuclear facility in Pakistan with two deaths and more other injured among workers. What's the connection? Apparently there isn't. But if a pandemic strikes what's the fate of industrial facilities of the same kind sparse around the world?
But, in other words, I continue to feel a certain note of despair in some of the comments to your post.
Seasonal human influenza epidemics in Northern Emisphere aren't worse than normal but a strage perception of gravity emerges from comments.
Again, the missing link between two human cases of H5N1 in souther China five months ago and demographic, socio-economic, etnographics background tends to obliterate the event per se.
In a region with high inhabitants density with highly crowded markets, industries, trasportation a viral strain (influenza or SARS or other) characterized by prompt transmissibility and attack rate will become widespread rapidly, weeks no months or years.
On the other hand, oblivion is the fate of many other diseases as dengue fever, chikungunya fever (an epidemic occurred in Italy last year, of course) without noticeable impact into public risk perception.
IOH,
Good comment as usual. In Feb. 2006, I was on a flight with a Florida Power and Light (FPL) nuclear control room boss. He lamented that they were already at 66% employment in nuclear control rooms (FPL manages three reactors), and in a pandemic they might have to shut down nuclear plants if they did not have enough operators and safety was compromised. It goes back to the issue of power outages during a pandemic.
I agree with you that risk assessment means taking dengue much more seriously than flu, and this year's seasonal flu may not have been much worse than normal and caused by the appearance of H3N2 Brisbane after the vaccine was made.
But dengue, malaria and chikungunya are The Devil You Know, and pandemics still represent something unknown but terrible. As I write this, my bosses are debating publicly on TV about closing a TB hospital in Lantana, Florida due to the terrible shape of the Florida economy. So there are terrible decisions that have to be made.
This is also why I write the continuing series "It isn't always influenza that kills." I want to highlight other problems on the radar besides pandemics.
Thanks!
Scott
I agree in part with you. But one should note that chikungunya fever is an emerging diseases with an expanding geographical spread. New strains appeared with novel described clinical course. Little is known about the impact of this virus in naive population (such as Europeans) with no previous immune priming. For TB, new XDR-strains deserve heightened attention and for my perspective a robust quarantine of the cases. TB is more infective than SARS and PPEs often are missing in third-world.
But no panic: in Italy, again, this season circulate at least four different type of flu: A/H1N1/Solomon Island, A/H1N1/Brisbane, A/H3N2/Wisconsin, A/H3N2/Brisbane and B/Yamagata and B/Victoria.