Scott McPherson's Web Presence

I do much of my strategic thinking in decidedly NON-strategic places (loo, shower, etc.),  So it was that this morning, whilst showering, I remembered my blog of October 4, 2007, regarding the Swedish discovery that Tamiflu does not break down in municipal water supplies.

A specific news article stated:

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu persists in waste water, which may make the drug a less effective weapon in an influenza pandemic, Swedish researchers said.

The medicine's active ingredient, oseltamivir carboxylate, is excreted in the urine and feces of those taking it. Scientists at Sweden's Umea University found the drug isn't removed or degraded in normal sewage treatment, and its presence in waterways may allow flu-carrying birds to ingest it and incubate resistant viruses.

My post is at: http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2007/10/4/killing-two-birds-with-one-stone.html and I hope you all periodically go back and search my blogs, in case my short-term memory ever malfunctions!

The reason why I bring it up is that Japan takes enough Tamiflu to make Roche very, very happy.  Yet, despite the theoretical presence of lots of peed-out Tamiflu in its wastewater systems, there is no evidence of Japanese H1N1 with the Tamiflu-resistant gene H274Y.  This would further supprt the theories of Dr. Henry Niman and others that this H1N1 mutation is not the result of a mutation derived from people taking mass quantities of Tamiflu.

It does, by proxy, support the theory that the H274Y gene was picked up via some recombination event elsewhere(s), and then came to Europe and North America via human contact.  It may also point us toward reservoirs of excreted Tamiflu in wastewater and, in some remote corners of the world, drinking water commingled with drinking water, in the vicinity of Tamiflu blankets.  Wherever a Tamiflu blanket is applied, are we checking the waste/groundwater to see how much residual antiviral is still active?  Could a combination of excreted Tamiflu in Indonesian, Egyptian, German, Mongolian, Chinese, and Egyptian lakes be a source of Tamiflu-resistant H5N1, incubated and then carried by migrating birds?

So I just wanted to share that thought, link the wastewater discovery of October with the current debate, and move on.  Now I must go and do more strategic thinking.  Now what did you say your name was?