Tamiflu blanket placed over Birbaum, India
Scott McPherson
in influenza and infectious diseases
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4 Comments
The report -- carried here and elsewhere, regarding the illness of more than 2,300 people in the epicenter of the H5N1 outbreak in Birbaum, West Bengal, India -- has led to the establishment of a Tamiflu blanket over cullers working within the entire Birbaum area.
Media reports, filtered by Dr. Henry Niman, indicate that sick cullers are receiving Tamiflu -- and the application of the antiviral has been extended to cover otherwise healthy cullers. The commentary can be found at:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01250801/Birbhum_Cullers_Ill.html
If this is accurate, this is the second-largest Tamiflu blanket in history. The largest Tamiflu blanket that anyone outside the WHO is aware of, occurred in August, 2006, in four rural Indonesian villages in West Java. This followed the death and funeral of a young girl. When twenty people who attended that funeral fell ill and several died, more than 2,000 surviving villagers were given Tamiflu as a preventative. That story, which originally appeared in the New York Times and was written by Donald G. McNeil, Jr., can be found at: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/14/news/flu.php?page=2 .
The issue has spilled over again into neighboring Bangladesh. It is safe to say that, by any yardstick, both governments have, for the moment, lost containment of the H5N1 virus -- if they had any pretense of containment at all.
Finally, the virus is on the outskirts of Kolkata (Calcutta), one of the largest cities in the world. Kolkata has an estimated population of more than five million people, making it one of the most densely populated cities in the world. To paraphrase Sinatra, if the disease can make it there, it can make it anywhere. Perhaps this is why there are some 12,000 courses of Tamiflu in the region as we speak, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Also according to the Ministry, another 10,000 courses of Tamiflu capsules, 100 bottles of Tamiflu syrup (for children?) and five ventilators are in transit.
India is digging in. It could be a long siege.
Reader Comments (4)
I've been watching the blogs and lurking in H5N1 forums for the past few years. I've seen lots of speculation and seeming near misses, and I'm a bit numb to it. So, who knows what's happening or will happen in India. At least I'm glad there is an active (if excitable) community trying to read the tea-leaves here, and I've been really impressed at the general quality of the blogoshere/forum discussion.Keep it up!
Also, just to another point to ponder about India now. Looks like dogs as well as goats seem to have a problem. Again, who knows what it means (how healthy are dogs in India in "normal" times?). Here's a link.
I've taken a fried egg roll on friday and Saturday evening I am having soar throat and cold.Though the weather is too bad last 2 days but still I am not sure whether I've got bird flu or not...could any body suggest?..how shud I get Tamiflu??...plz help me
sourav,
You probably don't have bird flu unless you have eaten poultry that was contaminated. I would take no chances, however, if you live in West Bengal or close by. Find a doctor.
Good luck to you!
Scott
Narmer,
Good points all. See my earlier blogs regarding the situation in India, also referring to the goat, dog and wild bird situations.
Scott