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The global press is fawning over today's bird flu-related statements of Bernard Vallat, head of the World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE.  Here is the MSNBC story, culled from, among other sources, Reuters and AP:

Were bird flu fears overblown?

PARIS - Fears of a flu pandemic originating from the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus were overblown, the head of the World Organization for Animal Health said Thursday.

The Paris-based body — an intergovernmental organization responsible for improving animal health worldwide — has been at the forefront of global efforts to monitor and fight H5N1, which scientists have tracked because they fear it may mutate into a human flu virus that starts a pandemic.

But "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the animal health organization, also known as the OIE.

Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.

"We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.

He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof.

"It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters.

Prepare for pandemic
At the same time, the United Nations influenza coordinator said that governments around the world need to do more to prepare for the dramatic economic impact of the next flu pandemic.

On Thursday David Nabarro said his team had recently collected information from nearly 150 countries to see how prepared they were for a pandemic and the picture was mixed.

“Most countries have now focused on pandemic as a potential cause of catastrophe and have done some planning. But the quality of the plans is patchy and too few of them pay attention to economic and social consequences,” he told BBC radio.

“The economic consequences could be up to $2 trillion -- up to 5 percent of global GDP removed,” he said, reiterating previous World Bank and UN estimates.

Nabarro will deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics later on Thursday on the global state of preparedness for any pandemic.

Father infected by son
Separately, a Chinese man who died of bird flu last month likely passed the disease on to his father, but there is no evidence the virus mutated into a form which can be easily passed between humans, an official said Thursday.

The man in the eastern province of Jiangsu was diagnosed with the H5N1 strain of bird flu days after his 24-year-old son died from the disease.

This rare case of two family members struck by the disease drew concern from health authorities, because humans almost always contract H5N1 from infected birds.

H5N1 has infected more than 340 people and killed at least 212 since 2003, mostly in Asia. The virus strain does not easily spread between people, however, and most patients had been infected through close contact with sick poultry.

With the world’s biggest poultry population and millions of backyard birds, China is at the centre of the fight against bird flu. There have been other cases of human infection without confirmed outbreaks among birds in the same area.

The latest cases in China brought the number of confirmed human infections of bird flu in China to 27, with 17 deaths.

'Always be a risk'
While playing down concerns of a pandemic, Vallat said bird flu "will always be a risk" — not just H5N1, but also other strains that could mutate and become more virulent for animals.

He said vaccination campaigns were needed in countries where H5N1 has become endemic, including Indonesia, Egypt and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria.

Risks from H5N1 would be "greatly diminished" if the virus were eradicated in these countries, which have become "reservoirs" for bird flu, he said.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22590623/

An AFP wire story expands somewhat on Monsieur Vallat's comments:

H5N1 bird flu virus reassuringly stable: animal health chief

PARIS (AFP) — The H5N1 virus that causes deadly avian flu has proven remarkably stable and action to curb outbreaks of the disease are highly effective, the head of the world's paramount agency for animal health said here Thursday.

Since the end of 2003, mutation of the H5N1 virus so that it can be easily transmissible among humans has been a nightmare for the world health community, raising concerns of a global influenza pandemic that could claim tens of millions of lives.

But Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), said no evidence of any such genetic shift had emerged.

"We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.

Vallat said a system to beef up veterinary surveillance, especially in poor countries, had borne fruit, enabling outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry flocks to be identified and swiftly eradicated.

"It took two years for our voice to be heard," Vallat said. "If we had been heard before, the virus would have been stopped in its tracks."

Vallat said, though, "there are three countries, Indonesia, Egypt and to a lesser degree Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and this creates reservoirs from which it can bounce back."

"If we could eradicate the virus in those countries, the problem of a pandemic from Asian H5N1 would be resolved," said Vallat.

The H5N1 virus is lethal and extremely contagious among birds. It is also dangerous for humans who are in close proximity to sick poultry, who can pick up the virus through nasal droplets or faeces.

H5N1 has killed 216 people since 2003, principally in Asia, according to the latest toll posted by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Hundreds of millions of chickens, ducks and geese have died from the virus or been culled as a preventative measure.

In other comments, Vallat said that climate change, combined with the acceleration of cross-border trade under globalisation, was posing a growing threat to animal health, which in turn raised a challenge for human health.

He pointed to mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, which has become established in North America, and Rift Valley fever, which is edging northwards in Africa "and could quite easily become established in the Mediterranean."

In other comments, Vallat said the OIE was in talks with Beijing over opening a reference laboratory -- an internationally validated lab for checking samples -- in China as part of the global surveillance network for monitoring animal health.

At present, the only OIE-accredited reference labs in Asia are in Japan, but the agency is pushing hard to have these vital facilities much closer to the outbreaks of disease.

China's participation in the 172-member OIE had been dogged for 15 years over the participation of Taiwan, but the row was resolved last May.

Three Chinese labs have been put forward as reference facilities, Vallat said.

Vallat said that consumption of meat would probably rise by 50 percent by 2020 to respond to the needs of the burgeoning middle classes in Asia, and this required stronger veterinary safeguards to prevent further health scares.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jpPvXJJ3VTHifJCBo7w3zW8DCzsQ

In related news, pigs were seen flying alongside migratory wildfowl; billions of chickens worldwide began clucking in gratitude; and mute swans in England were actually heard talking with cockney accents.

I don't know how often the OIE talks with the UN's FAO and WHO.  But judging from Monsieur Vallat's comments, they apparently don't talk enough.  Risk communication as it relates to pandemic preparedness is a tricky thing.  But the experts all agree that transparency and consistency are two extremely important concepts to adhere to.  For a leader of a global organization to make summary statements about the virulence and pandemic potential of a virus without first double-checking his data is reckless and not befitting someone of his stature.

The damage Monsieur Vallat's comments has caused to the pandemic preparedness effort worldwide cannot yet be calculated.  Perhaps the damage can be assessed later, in terms of lost human lives and poultry.  But for now, we are left with a sense of bewilderment and, quite honestly, some sense of betrayal.

Let's look at Vallat's quote again:

"We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.

I have always been told that H5N1 is a mutating fool of a virus.  In four years, four distinct clades have emerged, with many subclades and mutations in abundance.  How any expert can call any influenza A virus "exceptionally stable" is beyond my comprehension, let alone H5N1. 

I have asked my expert friends for comment.  I will post them when they are available.  And it is important for the WHO and FAO to answer Vallat's comments, lest their entire bird flu eradication effort unravels.  So too, our combined efforts at preparing our leaders and decision-makers for a pandemic.  It is time to answer, and answer in unison.  But the scientists and the policy makers must pick up the gauntlet thrown down by the comments of one Monsieur Bernard Vallat.

By the way:  Judging from the abundance of photos of Monsieur Vallat on the OIE Website, it can be determined that the most dangerous airspace in all Paris is the distance between Vallat and a camera lens.