Watching paint dry, OR Influenza is baseball
Scott McPherson
in influenza and infectious diseases
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2 Comments
WARNING: I am going to mix metaphors like Emeril mixes cake batter in today's blog,
Events unfold so slowly on the influenza surveillance front, it is frequently akin to watching paint dry. Another human case in Indonesia, just this week. And a possible family cluster in the south central Nile delta. H5N1 strikes swiftly and hard against poultry in northeast India. These events, analyzed individually, are probably deemed irrelevant by most people, maybe even by some infectious disease experts. "Never mind that," they say. "Look at Dengue, stretching its tendrils across the world." And we certainly agree with that, but we also know that dengue, like malaria, can be controlled and beaten back through proper insect control, public health and sanitation measures. Dengue could arguably present a more immediate challenge to the United States than flu, because of ongoing outbreaks of dengue in neighboring Mexico and the potential likely ports of entry for dengue in America -- Houston, New Orleans, Tampa and Miami. But West Nile also exists in large numbers in the US, as does Lyme Disease, and you hear precious little about that duo.
Without a doubt, pandemic fatigue is spreading like -- well, like a flu epidemic. A recent poll shows the lack of attention Americans are placing on the issue. People in the US -- people conditioned to hit the "reset" button on the XBox when the game doesn't go their way, or who want instant gratification on everything from their careers to the Iraq War -- just aren't focused on the likelihood of an influenza pandemic. When The Pandemic didn't happen in 2006, Americans lost interest and became somewhat jaded.
Complacency is the enemy of preparedness. It is a cancer that slowly takes over decision-making until the host is incapacitated. As I told the GAO when they were in town earlier this week: There are two camps in fluland. One camp says that each month that passes and does not bring us a pandemic pushes us ever further away from the next one. And then there are those who believe that each month that passes without a pandemic actually brings us closer to the next one, if for no other reason than we have pushed our luck too far.
Ask yourself: Which camp do you fall into?
But the facts are irrefutable that no disease on the Earth can compare to the infectious nature and mutation/evolution of influenza. Fortunately for us, we live in the 21st Century. Never before in the history of the planet have we had the surveillance network and arsenal of weapons to locate, identify and battle the virus. Never before have we had the technology to rapidly type, diagnose and treat the virus. And never before have we had the Internet to help us receive the information in close to real-time.
If the Internet existed in 1918, could the pandemic have been averted? Doubtful, but watching it unfold would have been possible. Had the Net existed in 1957, a pandemic probably could not have been averted, but its origins possibly delayed and tracked.
And that is what is going on today. Modern technology, science and medicine are allowing us to track the spread, evolution and species-jumping of avian influenza. Technology is helping authorities cull vast numbers of poultry. And one prominent researcher said (as I have mentioned in previous posts) that the odds are that Humankind has already killed a pandemic virus by culling poultry somewhere in the world. But we are no closer to stopping a pandemic than we were in 1918.
:"The Odds are?" 
Odds, indeed. One must always play the odds. Life is played by the odds. Insurance companies play the percentages; their oddsmakers are called Actuaries. Risk assessment is playing the odds. It is baseball. Homeland Security is baseball. And influenza preparedness and response all over the world is baseball. You "play the percentages" and put in the lefty when the starter tires and the next batter is a behemoth who can't hit a curve ball thrown by a lefty. But the odds exist as a guideline, not as scripture. So the opposing manager lifts the batter and replaces him with a better-percentage hitter in the situation; the batter hits a seing-eye single sending home the winning run from third; and the game is over.
Sooner or later, and I am betting sooner, influenza will hit that seeing-eye single. The virus, standing on third, will use it as a launching pad and go home, to virtually every home on the planet. And we will see that all we did was buy time for the closer to warm up,
Reader Comments (2)
I have been remiss in welcoming you to the Cyber Flu Community, but as they say, better late than never.
So, Mr. McPherson: Welcome! And please forgive my embarrassing lack.
I am always thrilled to be directed to an essayist with a bit of an "edge", and as you also delve into one of my other life's passions (politics) imagine my gratitude to FM for the heads-up.
This post grabbed me because I am vacillating between burn-out and issue fatigue, I really can't decide which I suffer, as I feel they have two distinct definitions applicable to PanFlu.
And you even provided a delightful Ah-Ha today as well: While I am a Loud and Proud Libertarian, I am also an enthusiastic supporter of Sen. Fred Thompson's candidacy. As I was reading a piece linked on Drudge not more than an hour ago steam was coming out of my ears!
Why is it that the concept of upholding one's fiduciary responsibility, *especially* when someone's very liberty is at stake, is political grist? We may all love to hate lawyers but I would not want to do without them, well, the good ones anyway. Dante described a place for the "Ambulance chasers" that seems quite appropriate.
I support Sen. Thompson even though I am also a supporter of tort reform. I figure there's no way I am going to agree with *anyone* on *everything* and sometimes ya just gotta pick your battles.
Oops... sorry for the political ramble... but I did say it was one of my *other* passions!
And, once again...WELCOME to the Flubiehood, or Flublogia as the more proper call it.
SZ
SophiaZoe,
Many thanks for the kind words. This is one of the few times that I will mix flu biz with politics, but I wanted to respond to your post.
Fred's recollection of none less than John Adams' defense of the British soldiers responsible for the Boston massacre should remind us that there are two things that make a nation strong. Only one is democracy as expressed in the election of leaders. The other is the rule of law. My friend Thomas PM Barnett puts this so elequently in his book The Pentagon's New Map. In order for nations to join The Core, or even The New Core, they must have both a relatively free right of association, some semblance of democracy and the rule of law. China knows this now, and it is moving -- slowly, but moving -- toward a full embrace of the rule of law. The execution of the food minister responsible for the shipment of contaminated grain to America is evidence of its willingness to stamp out lawlessness and impose the rule of law.
Barnett told me at lunch almost two years ago that China was like the town Deadwood, but was moving toward better protections for Western patents, copyrights and overall rights. When a nation moves in that direction, it is also far less likely to support or tolerate terrorism. This is one big way that we can win the war on Islamic fascism and general lawlessness in the world today. It is my adopted foreign policy and reconciles globalization with the war on terror.
So the rule of law is as sacrosanct as the ability to elect officers. And that means Fred Thompson gets to represent whomever he desires, because he is an officer of the court and, in some cases, is compelled to take these people on as defendants.
There are many who will oppose Thompson, because they know he alone is the only Republican who can defeat Obama or Hillary. Many of these revelations are in fact coming from his GOP rivals. But what makes him appealing is that he also is a staunch defender of individual rights, which should make libertatians happy as well.
Finally, as an IT professionnal, I know Fred "gets it" when it comes to technology. He recently lamented the federal government's inability to link its computer systems. "They can't even talk to each other," he complained. We in the lower levels of government understand the feds' collective inability to get anything done. It is a metaphor for the entire federal government system, run by people more interested in furthering their careers than doing what is responsible. This must stop.
I don't blog every day, just when the muse strikes me. I also don't try to plow the same ground as other flu bloggers, unless I have something to offer that might have been overlooked. But I try to keep The Big Picture up there and plug things into that. So I hope you come back every day and keep the lines of communication open!
Thanks again for the kind words.
Scott