WHO: Limited Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Pakistan
Scott McPherson
in Politics and government, influenza and infectious diseases
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1 Comment
The following is straight from the Voice of America Website. My comment is at the very bottom of this blog.
In the photo at left, the AP caption reads: Hospital staff clean and disinfect room in isolation ward where bird flu patient was treated in Abbotabad, Pakistan, 17 Dec 2007
| WHO: Limited Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Pakistan |
| 21 December 2007 |
WHO's top bird flu official David Heymann Friday, said there appears to be no threat of the further spread of the H5N1 virus, with the last human case reported December 6.
At least eight people were infected in Pakistan's northwest in recent weeks - in the country's first human cases of bird flu.
One man who worked on poultry farm in North West Frontier Province has died. His brother also died recently, but was not tested for the virus.
Heymann says the cases appear to be part of a small chain of human-to-human transmission.
A WHO team is investigating the outbreak and results from initial laboratory tests are expected in the next few days.
Pakistan's Health Ministry began sending out messages Thursday, asking people to take proper care when slaughtering and handling chickens.
Earlier this week, a WHO team visited a hospital in the northern city of Peshawar to educate doctors on controlling the spread of bird flu.
WHO says more than 200 people have died of bird flu worldwide since 2003.
Some information for this report was provided by AP and Reuters.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-12-21-voa50.cfm
So the WHO confirms limited H2H in the Pakistani cluster. So we were right. And notice how there is the distinct absence of surprise to this disclosure from the WHO. I think it was Mike Coston who points out this lack of emotion in today's blog over at Avian Flu Diary. Point well-taken. Add this to the list of other H2H episodes that have taken place around the world.
It is also time for Dr. Anthony Fauci to update his Powerpoint presentation. The following two images are taken directly from a Powerpoint presented by Fauci, who is well-known in flu circles as the director of the national Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, at the National Institutes of health, an arm of the United States Department of Health and Human Services. The presentation was found on the Internet and is public record.
Dr. Fauci does not shy away from bringing up the topic of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 avian influenza. In fact, he dedicates at least two key slides to the debate. Here they are, and they are pretty self-explanatory:
When I am trying to make the case to move to Phase Four, it is not merely because limited human-to-human transmission has occurred multiple times. It is because the suspected H2H transmission is becoming more and more common. It is also because we do not know when Tamiflu may mask the presence, or prior presence, of H5N1 in people, and we also do not know if the authorities are being completely transparent and conducting all possible tests to make sure the issue is closed.
People closely connected with H5N1 in humans will speculate quietly that, of all the clusters that have appeared since 2003, the Turkish cluster (noticeably absent from Dr. Fauci's slide) was the most probable H2H2H we have known of. But since scientific access was so tightly restricted by the Turkish government, we will never know for sure if a Phase Four virus emerged from that cluster. I say "since 2003," because everyone pretty much feels like the 1997 debut of human H5N1 was a big, big event and was the single biggest pandemic threat since 1976.
Anyone need a refresher on Turkey?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4594488.stm
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/05/news/flu.php
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/06/news/flu.php
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/35875.php
The suspected Turkish cluster occurred in January 2006. The Sumatra cluster (diagramed above) happened in May, 2006. The Pakistani cluster happened this month. And as Dr. Fauci points out, there have been numerous other times where H2H2H cannot be proven.
But it cannot be disproven, either. And the empirical evidence points to H2H2H. So does the expenditure and mass distribution of impressive quantities of Tamiflu. Actions speak louder than words, WHO. So may we agree that whenever more than a few courses of Tamiflu are distributed -- let's say, when Tamiflu is delivered to more than 2,000 people within four remote Indonesian villages (August 2006) or an entire island off the coast of Sumatra (October 2007) or used on Pakistani villagers (December 2007), or used on an Indonesian town (December 2007), this just might constitute prima facia evidence of increased human-to-human transmission?
Or is it just being careful?
Reader Comments (1)
H5N1 avian flu: Spread by drinking water into small clusters:
Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur - but are overvalued immense. In the course of Influenza epidemics in Germany recognized clusters are rarely (9% of the cases in the season 2005).
In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus will be transferred to humans strong seasonal in the cold via cold drinking water, as with the birds feb/mar 2006.
Recent research must worry: So far the virus had to reach the bronchi and the lungs in order to infect humans. Now it infects the upper respiratory system (mucous membranes of the throat e.g. when drinking and mucous membranes of the nose and probably also the conjunctiva of the eyes as well as the eardrum e.g. at showering). In a few cases (Viet Nam, Thailand) stomach and intestine by the H5N1 virus were stricken but not the bronchi and the lungs. The virus might been orally taken up, e.g. when drinking contaminated water.
The performance to eliminate viruses of the drinking water processing plants in Germany regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.
In temperate climates the strong seasonal waterborne infections like norovirus, rotavirus, salmonellae, campylobacter and - differing from the usual dogma - influenza are mainly triggered by drinking water dependent on the drinking water temperature (in Germany minimum feb/mar – maximum august). There is no evidence that influenza primary is transmitted by saliva droplets. In temperate climates the strong interdependence between influenza infections and environmental temperatures can’t be explained with the primary biotic transmission by saliva droplets from human to human with temperatures of 37.5°C. There must be an abiotic vehicle like cold drinking water. There is no other appropriate abiotic vehicle. In Germany about 98% of inhabitants have a central public water supply with older and better protected water. Therefore in Germany cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses.
In hot climates/tropics the flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and natural after floods. Virulence of Influenza virus depends on temperature and time. If young and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels or rice fields is used for water supply water temperature for infection may be higher as in temperate climates.
Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann
eMail soddemann-aachen@t-online.de
http://www.dugi-ev.de/information.html
Epidemiological Analysis:
http://www.dugi-ev.de/TW_INFEKTIONEN_H5N1_20071019.pdf