Scott McPherson's Web Presence

We have lost Graeme Laver.

Dr. Laver was one of the modern pioneers in the field of influenza research, and his work helped pave the way for N-class antivirals such as Tamiflu and Relenza. An Australian, Dr. Laver was widely respected by his peers for his superb work and his personality.

That personality can best be gauged by this homage, written by his close friend and longtime colleague Dr. Robert Webster yesterday.  The passage appeared in the pro-MED post notifying the world of its loss:

"In classical Graeme style, he finished his life with a great flourish while on his way to a scientific meeting on influenza in Portugal.

"The air traffic controllers cleared the air space over Heathrow so that he could receive rapid medical attention. We his friends all know that he would have reveled in the mayhem caused had he been aware of it."

ABC News Australia has a short summary of his life:

Well-known Canberra scientist Graeme Laver has died in London at the age of 79. Dr Laver researched the influenza virus for more than 30 years and helped develop the anti-flu drug Relenza. In 1996, Dr Laver was awarded the Australia Prize for excellence in the field of pharmaceutical design. [In addition to being awarded the Australia Prize, he was a member of the Royal Society of London]. Professor Adrian Gibbs worked with Dr Laver at the John Curtin School of Medical Research. "With the 2 vital discoveries that Graeme made, he really worked out the major foundation of influenza biology in that period of 20 years and how to control it," he said.

But an interview with Washington University's Virology History department in St. Louis, Missouri, helps showcase his life's work. The interview is fascinating and informative and also helps us better understand the dynamics of the 1968 pandemic of H3N2. Here's the link:

http://virologyhistory.wustl.edu/Laver.htm

Dr. Webster further goes on to describe his friend Laver's work:

"Graeme Laver, the maverick of influenza research in Australia, was always prepared to challenge authorities. He established the biochemical basis of antigenic drift and shift in seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses and played a key role in the development of the anti-influenza drug Relenza. It was Graeme's contention that antiviral drugs (Relenza and Tamiflu) should be available in everyone's medicine cabinet. His argument is that many will die in an influenza pandemic before available stockpiles could be distributed.

"He also contended that those claiming that this would promote antiviral resistance have got it wrong!"

The Tamiflu over-the-counter reference was covered by yours truly last year, during Australia's severe flu epidemic. Dr. Laver made headlines by staunchly advocating the immediate sale of Tamiflu over-the-counter.

One less maverick means one less person to question the existing world order when it comes to flu research.  We commend Dr. Laver for all he did in his life to save us from the next pandemic, and to reduce the severity of influenza.  Thank you, Dr. Laver.

For the first time since testing was inaugurated, ducks in New Zealand have tested positive for the low-pathogenic version of H5N1.  Specifically, ducks in the city of Invercargill have tested positive for low-path bird flu.

Well, it is only two ducks, and they are at opposite ends of the city.  But according to MAF Biosecurity New Zealand animal response team manager Dr Andre van Halderen, for all he and they know, the virus may have always been there and may indeed be endemic to the nation.

Or not.  Who knows?  One thing is for sure:  New Zealand poultry farmers should be more aware, since we all know that if left unchecked, low path goes into poultry facilities, and high path as often as not pops out.

It will be interesting to see if there is any sort of genetic linkage to mainland high-path H5N1 at all.  Speculation centers on migratory birds (again) and the East Asian Flyway as the potential source of the virus. 

Low-path H5N1 is not surprising.  It has turned up in the United States before, as recently as 2007, and undoubtedly will turn up again.

The news coming out of Indonesia is interesting.  It appears that members of two South Sulawesi families are infected with suspected H5N1.  In both families, the father and a boy are each exhibiting bird flu symptoms.  Of course, that could be anything from bad breakfast to dengue to the Real Thing. 

But what separates this incident from the usual reports is the actions of the regional government to bring in food and supplies, so the villagers do not leave the village.  This would seem to infer that the village is in quarantine and locked down, inasmuch as you can lock down a remote village.

We will have to wait for some sort of indication that the suspected infections are or are not H5N1.  But for now, it would seem that the silence has been broken and human cases are beginning to filter out of the Jakarta news blackout and into the view of Flublogia.

Stay tuned.  Thread at http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72002&page=6 .  Map poached from the always-reliable poster Laidback Al.

It is so easy to become complacent on the bird flu front these days.  After all, there has not been a significant flareup of human cases in weeks.  Even the cases of H5N1 in poultry are down to insignificance.  Sure, Togo, Laos and Vietnam report cases this week, and the Indonesian government has been so kind as to report on the deaths of two Tangerang patients from H5N1 in July.  It also has reported on the negative tests on five persons, leading my friend Crof to speculate on whether or not we would have heard in a timely manner if they had tested positive?

I am very concerned with this dearth of reported bird flu cases, be they (not) in poultry or (not) in people.  The best description of influenza's proclivity comes from Dr. Robert Webster, or maybe it was John Barry or someone else.  But the two words are:  Influenza smoulders. 

I can't help but feel that there's a whole lotta smoulderin' goin' on here.

Perhaps someone has the statistics immediately prior to the 1918 influenza pandemic, or better yet, the 1957 and 1968 influenza stats.  What did we see prior to the onset of these three mass epidemics?  Did we see a drop in seasonal flu, or an increase?  What did we see in poultry up to that time?  Were there mass die-offs of poultry in the years and months prior to the onset of pandemic, or did we see an unusual quieting of cases in fowl before the flu hit?

I ask all of this because I find it too quiet right now.  It is hard for me to believe that, suddenly, we would all be forced to watch old Barnaby Jones reruns rather than blog on the coming flu pandemic.  The lack of cases has already cost us one important blogger (Orange) and, quite frankly, I have been so busy dealing with the threat of multiple hurricanes that I am not really focused on pandemic preps right now. 

One thing is certain:  It is uncomfortably quiet, especially considering the widespread number and location of cases that were infecting flocks (and occasionally people) across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa before suddenly H5N1 hit some sort of barrier and subsided with a thud.

What I am openly wondering is:  could the H5N1 virus be in a smouldering state, possibly back into the bellies and intestines of wild birds, constantly mutating and evolving, recombining or reassorting, perhaps currently neither capable of lethally infecting bird nor man because its genetic capability to do both/either is currently between species?  Is this the time the virus is preparing to make its biggest species jump? 

Is this how influenza makes that jump, by hibernating in different pockets all over the world, quietly and out of public view, until the time is right for it to emerge and infect something/someone new by the thousands and millions?

Or has the mixture of surveillance, culling, education and swift government action succeeded in beating back the most deadly flu ever seen by Humankind?  One can surely argue in favor of surveillance and culling.  Transparency/translucency in surveillance, transparency/translucency in reports of human infections, and transparency/opaqueness in the sharing of flu samples have all helped keep this virus at bay in the human population.  No one can dispute that.

But I am not convinved we have won any kind of lasting victory against this virus. 

So let's discuss this current situation while we have the peace and quiet.  What do you think?  Has this virus turned its tail and run, or is it simply and quietly acquiring the genetic code necessary to kill?

Informed scientificspeculation is welcomed.  So is uninformed scientific speculation.

Apparently we can all rest easy about the media reports of bird flu being detected in Rhode Island poultry.  Both FLA_MEDIC and Crof have posted on the issue, so I will just have you click on the links. 

But I decided, type-A personality that I am told I am, to personally take charrrge! (can you tell I am getting ready for football season?) and call the number listed in the WPRI-12 news story, as if I were a concerned Rhode Island poultry farmer and wanted to test my flocks.

Guess what I got?  A message!  An older woman's recorded voice proclaims that "the office hours are from 8:30 AM to 4PM, Monday through Friday."

Huh?  They knock off at four in the afternoon?  Good Lord, that is early!  And I guess no one is concerned about H whatever N whatever, since they do not refer to it on the outgoing message.

Guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to see if this is H5N2, H7N-whatever, or H9N-whatever.