Scott McPherson's Web Presence

You know, we don't get to see many breaking television bird flu news stories outside of the US, but Indonesia's MetroTV seems to be doing a good job of broadcasting breaking bird flu news to their viewers.  Back in the 1980s, then-news director of Miami's Channel 7, Joel Cheatwood coined the expression "If it bleeds, it leads,"

The MetroTV mantra must be "If they sneeze, they lead."   Sorry.

Anyway, if you click on this link, you will see the news story of the family being transported to Jakarta via ambulance.  Again, a top of the cap to Commonground, veteran flusite poster.  Now I want you to put yourself in the position of any Indonesian resident who is watching this unfold on television.  How would you feel if this was broadcast in New York, or Peoria, or Billings, Vancouver, or Tampa?  Or Tallahassee?

As Count Floyd used to say:  Pretty scary, kids.

http://www.metrotvnews.com/berita.asp?id=50975

An excellent article via Bloomberg.com is circulating today.  It describes the growing problem the state of Texas is having with MRSA, particularly in its prep football stadiums.

Texas loves its high school football arguably better than any other state in the Union.  Many high school stadiums are fancier, better-equipped and have a seating capacity larger than many Division 1 college counterparts.  It is not uncommon to see a Jumbotron in some stadiums, along with skyboxes and -- artificial turf.

In earlier blogs (search keyword MRSA), I have mentioned the problems indoor stadiums have containing this deadly bacteria.  Recall that the NFL's St. Louis Rams had to disinfect all their playing and solid surfaces awhile back, because they were a MRSA Petri dish and were also passing the pathogen to opposing players. 

But now the problem is moving outside. Some snippets from the Bloomberg story:

Texas has artificial turf at 18 percent of its high school football stadiums, according to Web site Texasbob.com. It also has an MRSA infection rate among players that is 16 times higher than the estimated national average, according to three studies by the Texas Department of State Health Services.

``This is a disease that can kill you,'' said Carolina Espinoza, a graduate epidemiology student at the University of Texas in Houston, who helped conduct one of the studies. ``If I were a football player, I would be alarmed.''

At least 276 football players were infected with MRSA from 2003 through 2005, a rate of 517 for each 100,000, according to the Texas studies. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta reports a rate for the general population of 32 in 100,000.

Football players often become infected at the site of a turf burn and are misdiagnosed, said David Smith, co-author of a study showing that MRSA-related hospitalizations in the U.S. more than doubled from 1999 to 2005.

``The turf burns themselves are just the kind of minor skin injury that MRSA can exploit,'' said Elliot Pellman, medical liaison for the National Football League, which also has had infections among its players.

Football dominates high school sports in Texas, which has more participants than any other state. Seventy-four schools have stadiums seating more than 10,000. The sport provides 22,041 full-time jobs and generates $2.88 billion in annual spending, said Ray Perryman, president of Perryman Group, a Waco economic and financial analysis firm.

MRSA causes more deaths than any of the 51 infectious diseases tracked by the CDC, including AIDS, according to CDC data. The agency doesn't require medical professionals to report MRSA cases.

Texas plans a pilot program next year making MRSA a reportable illness in three regions, said Bryan Alsip, assistant health director for San Antonio.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alxhrJDn.cdc

As you know from reading my bio, I am heavily involved in high school football here in Florida and specifically at (Tallahassee) Lincoln High School, where NFL Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie (yes, THAT Antonio Cromartie), Pat Watkins, Pro Bowler and Super Bowl ring-holder Kevin Carter, Craphonso Thorpe and other current or former NFL players and a massive list of college alumni played.   Or, more specifically, where all the local high schools play football.  the teams play on natural grass, which is not immune to MRSA either. 

Regrettably, in the third-largest state in the Union, Florida's governing high school sports organization is apparently either unaware of or is downplaying the nation's growing concern with MRSA.  The Florida High School Athletic Association's Website, www.fhsaa.org, only contains three references to MRSA, and two of them are within minutes of 2004 committee meetings.  A third reference is a link to a National Federation of High School Associations 4-page paper on MRSA.  None are on the main page, and are instead buried deep within the site.

Big deal.

Last year and with much fanfare, the State of Florida instituted mandatory steroids testing for its student-athletes.  That is symbolically important, and maybe they'll even catch an athlete or two.  But in an area that matters much more, and affects far, far, far more students in and out of athletics -- namely, the prevention and mitigation of a potentially deadly staph infection that footballers, wrestlers and weightlifters are especially susceptible to, but any student can catch -- the State's high school athletic association is absolutely mute.  

I am sure this is not limited to Florida; how does your state stack up on the issue? 

Ask your coach.  If s/he doesn't know the acronym "MRSA," you have your answer.

Make yourself comfortable, as this blog is unusually long -- even by my standards

The first World Health Organization team is on the ground and working in Peshawar province in northwest Pakistan.  And barely within hours of the arrival of the advance team, declarations were made and assurances were given that things were not as bad as first thought.

But Shakespeare also deplaned in Pakistan, accompanying the WHO team to the microphones.  First, the stories on the arrival of the WHO.  This is from Pakistani newspaper The News:

WHO team visits families of bird flu victims

By Mushtaq Yusufzai 12/19/2007

PESHAWAR: A team of the World Health Organisation experts on Tuesday visited the NWFP where they visited the Khyber Teaching Hospital and also met the ill-fated family of two young students who died of bird flu virus in October.

Also, a WHO technical team is also arriving Pakistan today (Wednesday) which, according to sources, would verify the results of bird flu victims diagnosed by the NIH Islamabad.

After their arrival, the WHO officials held talks with senior officials of the NWFP health department who told them of the situation in the province created after the bird flu virus.They went to the Khyber Teaching Hospital (KTH) where the two young brothers, Muhammad Idrees and Muhammad Ilyas, died on October 19 and 29 respectively mainly because of sheer negligence of the hospital administration, the NWFP health department as well as of the National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad.

In KTH, the WHO team arranged an informative workshop for doctors and nurses of the hospital, especially those dealing with bird flu patients.

Officials in the KTH told 'The News' the WHO team had brought Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) for the staff of the hospital.

The team also visited isolation rooms in the hospital where patients suffering from bird flu virus were admitted and advised the hospital administration to select some safe place at a distance from the rest of the hospital for keeping the bird flu victims, so that the virus could not spread in the hospital. It is very painful to mention here that in the entire province, there is not even a single isolation room for infectious diseases.

With the consultation of the WHO team, the KTH administration selected a separate portion in the hospital for keeping bird flu patients. There are 11 isolation rooms in the portion, which would accommodate 22 patients.

Acting Chief Executive KTH, Prof Dr Siddiqur Rahman, nominated Dr Mukhtiar Zaman Afridi as the head of a team that would handle bird flu related cases.

The WHO officials praised doctors and health workers of the KTH for their efforts, which the officials felt saved many lives. The team members said in the world so far 60 per cent of the bird flu patients died while the ratio in Pakistan, 35 per cent, was quite encouraging.

The team members later went to Tajabad town in Peshawar and met the family members of two young brothers died of the disease.

Note the October reference to the deaths, which we think was actually November 19 and 29, respectively.  But everything is up in the air these days, as we try to figure out if a brother is really a cousin, etc.  So let's stay loose on relatives, and dates of death for the time being.

Now a second report on the activity in the region, this time from Indian newspaper The Hindu.  All bolding is mine.

Experts comb Pak. for signs of human-to-human bird flu infection

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP): A second team of health experts arrived in Pakistan on Wednesday to analyze samples from suspected bird flu cases to determine how the virus spread and whether human-to-human transmission may have occurred.

The experts from the US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 were expected to retest samples already gathered from a number of patients who were positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus in initial government analysis. Once the cases are confirmed, work will begin to piece together how the victims became infected.

"They are now investigating," said Orya Maqbool Jan Abbasi, spokesman for Pakistan's Health Ministry. ``The next day or two is very important.''

Four brothers were sickened last month in Abbotabad, north of Islamabad. Two died, one of whom was buried before tests were conducted. The other three tested positive for the virus. Up to six more people were suspected of being infected, including several who were in contact with poultry.

Outbreaks were reported among birds in the area before the human cases. However, Abassi stressed that there have been no new reports of bird flu in poultry or people.

A separate WHO team visited a hospital Tuesday in the northwestern city Peshawar that treated some of the patients. They were working with doctors and nurses on how to handle suspected cases and improve infection control measures.

``They want to go through the records in the hospital for the last month or two to see if there's been any upsurge in respiratory cases that weren't identified as H5N1 but which could actually be,'' said Gregory Hartl, a WHO spokesman in Geneva.

The team will look to see which patients could have been exposed to the virus by infected birds and also whether human-to-human transmission could have occurred.

One of the brothers who survived, Mohammed Ishtiaq, said he was hospitalized with flu symptoms after slaughtering chickens suspected of carrying bird flu without wearing protective clothing last month.

His brothers who died visited him in a hospital, he said.

Hartl said no new cases have been discovered, but increased awareness has led to more people with flu-like symptoms being checked.

``What this is showing is that they're taking everything very, very seriously,'' Hartl said. ``Surveillance has been enhanced, more people are reporting cases and more people have been sensitized on the heath care worker side of the need to notice.''

Pakistan has requested additional supplies of the antiviral Tamiflu as a precaution, Hartl said.

At least 209 people have died worldwide from the virus, which began plaguing Asian poultry stocks in late 2003, according to the WHO. It remains hard for people to catch, but scientists worry it could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, potentially sparking a pandemic.

Associated Press medical writer, Margie Mason, contributed to this report from Hanoi, Vietnam.

But wait, according to WHO influenza head Dr. Keiji Fukuda, there is nothing extraordinary going on in Pakistan.  This story is from Reuters, dateline Islamabad (as was the above AP story), so we know for sure we have Mainstream Journalist Boots On the Ground!  I am bolding all Fukuda quotes and references.

WHO probes Pakistan's first bird flu death

Newsweek magazine has weighed in on the escalating/deteriorating situation in Uganda.  And if you read the article carefully, and match Newsweek's suspected case total with the official records, you get a wildly divergent -- and extremely unsettling -- new number of potentially infected persons.  Not to mention the possibility of a deliberate cover-up of the virus by government officials.

The article itself is a good digest of what has already happened. And as we know and is proven by the presence of a reporter in the village -- Newsweek's Andrew Ehrenkranz (photo) -- there is no substitute for Journalist Boots on the Ground.  As admirable a job as as the Myhres' have done to update their blog, they are not journalists, aimed at extracting the truth. 

The paragraph in question is this one:

Some Ugandans, however, are questioning whether Museveni's government deliberately covered up news of the outbreak ahead of the recent meeting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in the capital city, Kampala. The government did not announce the outbreak until just after the conclusion of the high-profile meeting, even though government reports acknowledge that blood samples from infected patients were sent to South Africa for Ebola testing on Sept. 29. These samples were reportedly found negative for Ebola but were subsequently shown to carry a new strain of the virus at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta on Nov. 24—the second day of the Commonwealth meeting. The initial false negative may have been due to the difficulties of identifying the new strain—even the CDC tests took a day longer than usual—but that hasn't stopped public outrage over whether the government could have acted faster to stop the spread of the virus. "It looks quite strange, from a public health perspective, that blood samples were not taken [to the CDC] earlier," said Dr. George Pariyo, dean of the public health school at Kampala's well-respected Makerere University in a front-page Uganda Monitor feature investigating the suggestions of a government cover-up.

Other news regarding the actual number of infected, plus the prospect of large numbers of "super-spreaders" of the disease, are also mentioned by Newsweek:

Bundibugyo is at the epicenter of the outbreak, which began in August. Doctors in the town are monitoring more than 360 sick people believed to be incubating the virus and have recorded 18 local fatalities, including four medical staffers at Bundibugyo Hospital. Townspeople are terrified by the outbreak. Bundibugyo's usually bustling central market is quiet, and residents of nearby villages are anxiously reading newly distributed Ebola information posters. Hawkers sell the antibiotic Cipro at inflated prices on the street, falsely promising that it can prevent infection; local healers and herbalists are offering their own versions of a cure. (bold mine)

The piece continues:

But while the new strain seems to be less virulent, it also raises the possibility that the infected are now more likely to survive long enough to spread it elsewhere. Already there have been Ebola cases in eight districts across Uganda, with confirmed cases as far away as Mbale, a village some 600 miles from the outbreak zone. On Uganda's borders, neighboring Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Sudan are screening all Ugandans for symptoms and travel patterns in an attempt to halt the disease from spreading into their countries.

Let's hope the global media keeps its focus on this growing problem in Eastern Africa.  The entire story can be found at:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/76935

Has anyone noticed their Internet connection slowing down over the past few days?

Has anyone not noticed the slowness of the Internet, especially at night?

E-commerce retailers are experiencing a huge surge in shoppers this holiday season.  And nowhere is this more evident than in the (in)ability of users to expeditiously shop on their favorite Websites this holiday season.  I can speak directly to this issue.  For example, while shopping for a new television set online, I was thrown off Sears.com several times, and thrown off circuitcity.com almost as many times.  Screen refreshes were agonizingly slow, and I would up shutting off the computer and waiting for a more suitable time to shop.

Welcome to the New Normal on the Internet once a pandemic starts.  As we have discussed before, the New Normal (at least for 8 to 12 weeks at a time) will be socially-distanced parents attempting to work from home, while their kids are toiling away on their XBox 360s hooked up to the net, gaming with 200,000 of their closest online friends.  The cumulative effect of this will be to slow even the highest-speed cable connection to a veritable crawl.

But even a pandemic may not be the trigger to bring the Web to its knees.  A recent USA Today article speaks of the dangers to bandwidth that are just a few years off, even without the threat of a looming pandemic. Here it is:

Video, interactivity could nab Web users by '10

By David Lieberman, USA TODAY

"We're not trying to play Paul Revere and say that the Internet's going to fall," says IIA co-Chairman Larry Irving. "If we make the investments we need, then people will have the Internet experience that they want and deserve."

Nemertes says that the bottleneck will be where Internet traffic goes to the home from cable companies' coaxial cable lines and the copper wires that phone companies use for DSL.

Cable and phone companies provide broadband to 60.2 million homes, accounting for about 94% of the market, according to Leichtman Research Group.

To avoid a slowdown, these companies, and increasingly, wireless services providers in North America, must invest up to $55 billion, Nemertes says. That's almost 70% more than planned.

Much of that is needed for costly running of new high-capacity lines. Verizon is replacing copper lines with fiber optic for its FiOS service, which has 1.3 million Internet subscribers.

Johnson says that cable operators, with 32.6 million broadband customers, also must upgrade. Most of their Internet resources now are devoted to sending data to users — not users sending data. They'll need more capacity for the latter as more people transmit homemade music, photos and videos.

"Two years ago, nobody knew what YouTube was," Johnson says. "Now, it's generating 27 petabytes (27 million gigabytes) of data per month."

Schools, hospitals and businesses could add to the flood as they use the Web for long-distance education, health care services and videoconferencing.

Service providers might not appreciate how fast Web demand is growing, Johnson says: "Comcast doesn't know what's going on in AT&T's network, and vice versa. Researchers are increasingly shut out. So nobody's getting good, global knowledge about the Internet."

One of the best-kept secrets in netland is the existence of LambdaRail, an educational network that makes broadband seem as slow as dialup.  First, some history: What we know today as the Internet was actually built by the US military during the Cold War.  It was a data communications network called ARPANET; a network so resilient that it could survive multiple nuclear strikes.  After the US military surrendered ARPANET to Higher Education, the colleges and universities turned it into what we know today as the Internet (sorry, Al, you didn't do a damn thing to build it).  And then the planet took the Internet over from academia.

Academia never really got over that idea, so they built their own, faster, better net, called LambdaRail.  It travels orders of magnitude faster than the public Internet does.  And it has relatively few users; so few, in fact, that state university systems are now trying to resell LambdaRail bandwidth to anyone who technically qualifies (you have to have some serious jack, plus a smidgen of an educational purpose, so most need not even bother to apply). In my day job, I am seriously considering moving my organization to LR as a way to fuse our disaster recovery network planning with our daily net business model.  If we move to LR, we hypothetically should avoid the wobbles, crunches and squeezes the rest of you peons will face when the pandemic arrives.  HAHAHAHAAAAAAA!

Anyway, this LR stuff may all sound good, but the impact of a pandemic to global commerce, globalization itself, and the just-in-time economy will be sudden and devastating.  The same Internet that carries your Flikr photos and YouTube videos also carries banking information, billions and billions of transactions, and literally trillions of dollars move on it annually.  So the idea that during a pandemic, Johnny's game of Assassin's Creed for the 360, coupled with Mom's need to log in and hit the corporate mainframe via a Web portal cumulatively causing a global financial meltdown is more than just the stuff of fiction.

Booz Allen Hamilton came to this conclusion last June, when they predicted the Internet would collapse in the EU in Day Four of a severe pandemic.  So the lesson is to watch the Internet this holiday season, study how it slows down, then envision this scenario being the New Normal during a pandemic.  Or anytime in 2010, according to Gannett.

Happy shopping.