Scott McPherson's Web Presence

In my fourteen years of pandemic lecturing, I frequently use the old Booz, Allen warning that socially distanced home workers in a pandemic could "lose the Internet." 

Here's exactly what that means.  Imagine an Internet scenario comparable to a fusion of Michael Jackson's death and Black Friday online sales. During the pandemic, parents are slaving over their computers, trying to do their work from home.  Or one parent is working while another is trying to re-watch The Irishman on Netflix.  Or The Mandalorean on Disney+.  And Bryce, bored as Hell because schools are all closed, boots up the PS4 to play Fortnite (again) with friends. 

Now imagine this scenario being replicated tens of thousands of times -- simultaneously -- in your own community.  Now imagine that scenario magnified nationwide, to millions of homes. 

Crashing game servers are the least worrisome problem.  Crashing Internet service providers are the real concern.

We have no Earthly idea what will happen to the Internet if and when this scenario becomes a reality.  It's a question that has not been asked since 2009.  Now, one would imagine that the Internet is a far more resilient utility, with all these multiple carriers.  But there is something called the Last Mile.  Last Mile carriers are essentially that:  telecommunications carriers who handle everybody's (or almost everybody's) common Internet traffic at one point or another within a community. From Wikipedia:

The last mile is typically the speed bottleneck in communication networks; its bandwidth effectively limits the bandwidth of data that can be delivered to the customer. This is because retail telecommunication networks have the topology of "trees", with relatively few high capacity "trunk" communication channels branching out to feed many final mile "twigs". The final mile links, being the most numerous and thus the most expensive part of the system, as well as having to interface with a wide variety of user equipment, are the most difficult to upgrade to new technology. For example, telephone trunklines that carry phone calls between switching centers are made of modern optical fiber, but the last mile is typically twisted pair wires, a technology which has essentially remained unchanged for over a century since the original laying of copper phone cables.

So now you understand the problems that can arise when Fortnite meets Netflix meets work from home plans. And since every home in America will probably be using the Last Mile (unless you have fiber to the home or satellite Internet), the potential to "lose the Internet" is there.  It's just that no one knows how, when, or how bad this could be. Adding to the problem is that home Internet connections fall under the category of "best effort."  Many of us would argue that "best effort" is an oxymoron.  Emphasis on the "moron" part. Corporate and government networks, by contrast, usually have Service Level Agreements with their Internet and broadband partners. These agreement spell out expectations for service delivery and penalties (including financial penalties) for outages. Sadly, home users cannot get SLAs, as they are known in the industry.  

CIOs, CTOs and other IT managers should anticipate these problems as their clients attempt to log in remotely.  The bottlenecks from their VPN traffic will be self-limiting as to how many simultaneous remote connections they can support. Plan to manage that access in some way or another.  Possibly limiting the time an employee can be online with the corporate servers.  Organizations who utilize cloud technology are not immune from this Last Mile problem, but the load management is offloaded (pun intended) to the cloud provider.  But prepare for some unexpected costs, just in case.

Finally, little Bryce or Amanda will ultimately get bored with Fortnite (hard to believe, true) or CoD, and eyes will wander over to your work laptop.  Be aware of this and keep his (or her, appropriately) hands off the work PC!  No better way to bring down a corporate network than a combination of curious child, work computer and infected Internet link. We don't need Ransomware invading a work environment during all of this other stuff. 

It's a dry subject, mutual aid agreements.  These agreements, often brokered by higher law enforcement and emergency response, are designed to help beleaguered police and sheriffs offices, fire departments and first responders in the event of a disaster.

Those mutual aid agreements are being looked through and implemented as I type this, in Kirkland, Washington.  First, the Washington Post story of today .

From the Post story:

Okay, back to it.  Normally, mutual aid is requested in the event of a localized situation such as a hurricane or tornado.  State officials drill these events routinely.  But rarely, if ever, have they been exercised for a disease.  Twenty-five firefighters and a handful of law enforcement officers are being isolated/quarantined due to potential exposure to the COVID-19 coronavirus that has started to appear in the community of 90,000 just northeast of Seattle.  Kirkland officials are implementing their mutual aid agreements. 

Of course, as we have been preaching for the past fourteen years, is pandemics have the potential to render mutual aid agreements unworkable. That is because pretty much every such organization will be under the same stresses at the same time. Quarantine/isolation will be replaced by sickness or worse. But it is the duty of police chiefs, sheriffs, fire chiefs, and emergency management officials to work together to plan exactly how to maintain public safety and public order in the face of increased absenteeism if COVID-19 continues to spread.

What if a community suffers extremely high absenteeism among its LEOs, firefighters and first responders and public safety is threatened?  What if help can't come? Are there retired professionals, auxiliary personnel, and others who can be activated to help fill the void?  Only planning and asking the tough questions can determine this. 

When some very serious people (such as Drs. Mike Osterholm and Anthony Fauci) start mentioning the "P" word in public settings, it is past time to focus on the ways a potential/likely coronavirus pandemic will affect you. And a pandemic will affect you in ways you cannot imagine.

We still do not know so many things.  We do not know if this virus will actually sustain itself to a pandemic level.  We do not really know its virulence in the intermediate term, let alone the long term.  We do not know if the Chinese countermeasures are going to slow down the virus' advance well enough to beat it back like the world beat SARS back in 2003.

But we do know it likes to infect people.  A lot.  And we do know it can kill you. 

The virus won't be on your doorstep tomorrow.  Or next week.  That is a very good thing, because we have a lot of prep to do in case it DOES land on your doorstep eventually. So you are right to ask: What sensible things can I do now to prepare that won't break the bank, won't make me look like a nut and won't waste  time?

Here is a list of the things you should be thinking about.  This list is by no means complete, although it is really comprehensive.  Feel free to build upon it in your own way.  I have listed the precaution and the timeframe. 

Flu shot and PPV vaccine (always)

Breaking news:  I did not get a flu shot this year.  Breaking News:  I got the flu (and so did my wife) three weeks ago. Whoops.  I did beat it back (again), using my special Tamiflu cocktail of taking two pills right off the bat.  But go and get the shot now.  Today.  It won't ward off coronavirus.  But then if you do get flu-like symptoms and pandemic is raging, the actual medical diagnosis of your condition will be somewhat easier.  PPV is the bacterial "Pneumonia" vaccine.  The pneumonia accompanying Wuhan is viral.  So PPV won't guard against Wuhan-centric pneumonia.  PPV will help against influenza-related pneumonia, and it will aid doctors if they have to diagnose you if, Heaven forbid, you contract Wuhan coronavirus.

Soap and water (always!)

No countermeasure of any kind will mean as much to you and your family as the act of washing hands using plenty of soap and plenty of water. Take all the time you want.  The duration should be somewhere between the song "Row row row your boat" and the drum solo from "In-a-Gadda-Da-Vida."  Only settle for hand sanitizer when no soap and water is available.  Have plenty of soap.

Food (now)

The feds updated its pandemic page on ready.gov just a few days ago.  The feds suggest stockpiling at least two weeks of food and water per household.  This is because of anticipated breakdowns in the supply chain.  The standard is one gallon of water per person per day for consumption. Buy Gatorade, Powerade or Pedialyte, for dehydration brought about by illness.

And don't forget the pets.  Make sure they have food and enough water to drink.

Medicine (now)

This is extremely important.  I keep a "bird flu stash" of all my prescription medicines.  I have been cultivating that for years as part of my pandemic plan, largely by reordering on the 25th day and slowly building the stockpile.  In some cases, you may be able to buy an additional few days/weeks/month's worth of medicines through your prescription drug plan.  If you can afford to do it, by all means do it.  This is especially true of any prescription medicine that you literally bank your life upon.  You should assume shortages will occur. 

Check your over-the-counter medicines.  Cough medicine, NSAIDs, stomach and diarrhea meds, etc.  Make sure you have at least one working thermometer.  If 25% of the existing coronavirus cases require some level of hospitalization, that means 75% do not.  Self-triage.  There will be plenty of competent medical advise that will come to you in the weeks and months ahead.  Realize that you may become the caregiver to a family member (or neighbor, more on that later) in a light or moderate case of the virus.

And as the feds recommend, also try and get copies of your medical records.  Certainly write down a list of every prescription medicine you ingest.

Power (now)

If you have a generator, test it.  Fire it up.  Pretend it's hurricane season. Make sure you have the appropriate fuel to cover moderate electrical outages.  Nature has a tendency to "pile on" during these situations, and stuff breaks, pandemic or no. If an electrical line falls or is knocked down and staff are too sick to repair it, too overwhelmed with other calls or simply unwilling to venture out and effect repairs, you may be without power longer than you would like.

Power up all those battery-powered gadgets.  Power up all those battery-powered chargers you have to power up all those gadgets when there is no power. 

Communications (now)

Know how you would communicate with family members if landline or cellular communications experience disruptions due to breakdowns or congestion.  As in preparing for a hurricane, find that old transistor radio from 1987 or buy a multiband radio with weather and government channels. 

Personal protective equipment (buy now but please don't hoard; to wear later)

We have all seen the photos of Chinese citizens wearing masks.  In fact, it is now the law that when venturing outside, Wuhan residents are required to wear them.  Drones are patrolling the airspace above the streets of Wuhan, watching for citizens not obeying the law. 

In this country, masks and gloves are already in short supply.  Eyewear -- just as important as masks and gloves -- is much easier to find. I don't want to oversell the issue of masks.  If this thing goes pandemic, the government and military will commandeer what they need for first responders and healthcare workers.  A Taiwanese scientist says handwashing is more effective than masks, anyway.  So if you feel compelled to throw in a supply of some sort: Only buy NIOSH N95 masks and respirators, if you can find them.  But don't go overboard.  Latex or nitrile gloves are fine.  Viruses can enter the body via the eyes, usually by rubbing them and then touching the face. By all means always put a mask on a sick person with respiratory symptoms, be it coronavirus or flu.  If you have facial hair, especially beards, you have a choice to make.  Shave your beard off completely if you plan on wearing a mask at all.  Otherwise, don't buy them.  Remember that masks get saturated with perspiration and moisture and will have to be thrown away frequently. You only want to wear a mask when venturing outside where you might encounter people -- or (especially) if you or a family member become sick.  Then wear a mask at all times to reduce the chances of making other family members sick.  Wear some manner of eyewear when venturing out in public as well as a mask.

Solid Surface Detail (any time a family member falls ill with flu-like symptoms, regardless of season; or if a guest recently visited and is now ill)

Have a supply of cleaning materials on hand.  You will start to see materials that will claim to kill coronavirus.  Be wary of those claims.  Use materials from reputable manufacturers that are proven to kill  influenza, common cold (many cold viruses are in fact coronaviruses), or hepatitis. 

Perform what I call "Solid Surface Detail."  Mask up and glove up.  Wear eyewear. Wipe down every single exposed solid surface you have.  Door handles.  Sink and toilet handles.  Countertops.  Cabinet handles.  Refrigerator handles.  Smartphones. Remote controls.  Game controllers. Anything the suspected infected person might have handled.

Personal defense

I leave that up to you.

Mail and packages (enact only if a pandemic is declared and multiple cases begin to appear in your region or community)

In Alaska during the 1918 pandemic, entire Inuit villages were wiped out.  It took a long time for scientists to figure how why.  They were isolated and no one came in or out.  That is, except --- the mailman.  Along with the mail, the postman delivered plague and death.

Chinese scientists now believe that under the right conditions, the Wuhan coronavirus can live on solid surfaces for up to five days. Porous surfaces such as paper and cardboard historically render viruses inert more quickly.  "Quarantine" your mail and packages for at least a day before opening.  Keep them in your garage or carport and allow them to ventilate. I would go further in this scenario and wear gloves to open mail and packages, or at the very minimum wash my hands thoroughly after opening mail and discarding packaging.

Closings of schools and government offices (if the virus goes pandemic and hits your community)

You can count on schools and some government offices closing at least part of the time during a pandemic. We see entire school districts close for flu outbreaks today. Not schools. Districts. If this coronavirus goes pandemic and hits your community, schools will close.  Daycare centers and nurseries probably will as well.  Assume this and make plans accordingly.  Who will stay home and watch the kids?  What if Bryce wants to have friends over?  My reaction is "Hell to the nah" about that. That is why they have networked video games.  They can play Fortnite.  You may need to have a grown-up stay home as much to enforce that isolation policy as to watch the kids.

Your job

This is a tough one.  If the virus hits your community:  Will you go to work?  Will your workplace even be open?  Can you work from home?  What work can you do from home?  Do you have accrued leave?  Will you be paid if you do not show up for work?  Ask your employer if he/she has a plan if the pandemic hits your community. 

And things might get unsettling even before a pandemic reaches your community.  Just today, Hong Kong airline Cathay Pacific has asked 27,000 of its staff to take voluntary unpaid leave. This is because the coronavirus and subsequent mass flight cancellations have combined to risk the bankruptcy of the airline.  The virus has completely upended the airline's ability to make money. And Hyundai has suspended its assembly lines in Korea, partially because of the virus and partially because of disruptions in their supply chain.

An entire cottage industry sprung up as a result of earlier pandemic planning.  It was all composed of HR and labor attorneys.  Unions have weighed in.  Know your rights but also know this will be an extraordinary and completely unprecedented situation.

Rally your neighborhood

Consider forming a neighborhood watch, but not in the traditional sense.  Have a way of checking on your neighbors.  Exchange landline and cellphone numbers securely and confidentially (meaning don't put them on Facebook or Nextdoor). Call or message the neighbors daily, or every other day, to make sure they are responsive and okay.  Especially check on any neighbor over the age of fifty. Know if you have any sort of medical expertise in your neighborhood.  Use PPEs mentioned above if you have to actually physically go to a neighbor's home, if there is no response.

After reading my tips, you will certainly think of things I didn't.  Back when I had to get the entire state of Florida ready for Y2K (and I mean The. Whole. State.), I had a policy council.  After my initial appointments, the only way you could gain admission was to think of something our council had not thought of yet.  So if you have things to add, feel free to post them in the comments section and I will review and comment on them.

Now is not the time to be on an Asian cruise.  Alas, the passengers of the Diamond Princess are learning this too late.  The 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew members are under a mandatory 14-day quarantine after ten people on the cruise tested positive for the Wuhan coronavirus. The Washington Post has the story in today's paper.

There is a second cruise ship, the World Dream, with 1,800 passengers.  Hong Kong authorities are testing those passengers after one became ill with symptoms and the subsequent disclosure that several Chinese had been diagnosed with coronavirus on the previous cruise of the same ship.

Elsewhere, a California couple who had been self-isolating at home following the husband's return from China have been taken to a hospital.  The husband infected his wife and both had been doing well when, suddenly, they both took a turn for the worse.

It appears that in all these cases, the victims are 50+ years of age.

Worldwide, the virus has sickened a confirmed 24,324, with an estimated 3,000 in critical condition, according to the Washington Post. Those are 3,000 people who would require an ICU or comparable facility, at least under normal circumstances.  There are 490 confirmed deaths this morning. The CFR holds at 2%.

For those of us in the USA, the SARS almost-a-pandemic was just another headline. In Canada, especially Toronto, it became a nightmare.  And in Asia, it became a matter of life-and-death.  SARS came within a gnat's eyelash of becoming a real pandemic.  Remember your Pandemic 101:  A pandemic exists when a novel disease that has not previously been seen in humans emerges; it is easily transmissible from person to person; it is truly global geographically; and no or almost no natural immunity exists in the population. 

So the only thing that kept SARS from attaining that lofty goal was its inability to replicate itself on every continent and, as a result, to burn through a significant portion of each continent's population. There is an ongoing pandemic -- the HIV/AIDS pandemic - but people usually are not aware that yes, it is a pandemic virus.

Excepting AIDS, there is only one recent playbook on the shelf to fight this:  the SARS response.  One would do well to Google the hell out of SARS to gain knowledge about coronaviruses in general and how close we came to a real bad situation with SARS, which will help you better understand this new 2019-nCoV.

There is one other playbook on the shelf, or should be: your old, yellowed, dusty flu pandemic plan.  What, you say?  We have a pandemic plan?  Chances are your IT shop has, or had, one. Here in sunny Florida, CIOs were drilled by yours truly to have one until they cried for their mommas. And now it is time for CIOs, CTOs and assorted other IT professionals to find those plans, blow the dust off, refamiliarize themselves with them and vigorously update them.

In 2006, as I was formulating my own pandemic plans and convincing agency heads to do the same, Michael Dell flew in to Tallahassee to address agency IT leaders.  During Q and A, I asked Mr. Dell what his company's pandemic plans were.  His answer was quite informative.  He said they had first-hand experience with this topic during the SARS epidemic.  They checked their supply chains for vulnerabilities and deficiencies.  They prepared to eventually shift production between Ireland and China based on where the virus was, knowing flu moves in geographic and antigenic waves during a pandemic.  But it was the SARS response that would really inform the company's response.  It was inspiring.  But then Mr. Dell asked me what I thought of his plan, and did I have suggestions?

Well yeah, I thought, but simply told him it appeared he had a good handle on things.

For those of you with pandemic plans, you will probably find the human elaments have not changed much.  Will you engage work-at-home plans?  What defines WORK, anyway?  What are your deliverables in a socially distanced environment?  I can tell you we have already addressed these issues in my shop and are preparing to test all ways to access our servers and network and VoIP servers.  Can our support staff answer calls from home successfully?  Can they work on their laptops and access our help desk software? Can our developers code from home successfully? 

Have you adjusted your skills matrix recently? Have you mapped all the tasks an employee performs, and are two to three people able to also perform those tasks?  It doesn't mean another person does 100% of those tasks.  Quite the opposite: It means you can distribute those tasks across your area so that the work gets done adequately.  For flu, we assumed an absentee rate approaching 35-40% at any given time as the virus burns through your community.  For this coronavirus, that may be conservative.  Or not.  We don't know yet.  And you don't know who might never come back.

Now for the supply chain.  Apple just announced it was implementing plans to deal with supply chain disruptions caued by the pandemic.  You should also lump your SaaS and cloud providers into that category.  You should be surveying all your key suppliers and asking them what their pandemic plans are.  If they cannot articulate their pandemic plans, find alternative suppliers. Ditto your cloud partners.  What are their pandemic plans?  After all, the cloud is just a whole bunch of data centers, full of people, packed into spaces with sealed HVAC systems.

You need to be asking those questions TOMORROW. You should expect answers the same day.  There is no reason to delay doing these things. It is the prudent thing to do.