Scott McPherson's Web Presence

One reason why I am an information technology professional is that I could not "do biology." Sure, I could dissect frogs with the best of them, but I just was not emotionally equipped to be a biologist.

Same thing with astronomy: When I found out you had to actually do math to be an astronomer, I was so disappointed.

Nonetheless, over the past three years, I have tried to stay in the same room with biologists and geneticists who unravel the mysteries of cleavage points (and I tell you I have an entirely different definition of that!), genetic sequencing and etc.

That is one big reason why I appreciate the reports that come out of Harvard's proMED email updates. And one today casts a big shadow over the data we have been fed regarding the genetic background of Mexican Swine Flu.

Who here can remember who originally said this thing was an avian/human/swine hybrid? According to Dr. Raul Rabadan of Columbia University, that information is wrong wrong WRONG. I quote from his proMED report:

The preliminary analysis using all the sequences in public databases

(NCBI) suggests that all segments are of swine origin. NA and MP seem related to Asian/European swine and the rest to North American swine

(H1N2 and H3N2 swine viruses isolated since 1998). There is also interesting substratification between these groups, suggesting a multiple reassortment.

We are puzzled about sources of information that affirm that the virus is a reassortment of avian, human and swine viruses. It is true that the H3N2 swine virus from 1998 and 1999 is a triple reassortant, but all the related isolates are found since then in swine.

All-RIGHTY then!   A scientific dust-up!  FIGHT! FIGHT!  It does beg the question of what this virus is, and how did apparently erroneous content get pushed out to the general public as gospel?

My recollection was that the source was attributed to be the CDC.  Maybe the WHO.  What this also tells me is that this virus is even more novel than novel.  A novel virus with human genes, depending on which gene segment they are located, also tells us if there is any shred of hope that humanity might have an immunity to this virus.  For example, some human genes on the hemagglutinin strand HA would give us some hope that some humans would be immune to the virus' cleavage point (God how I love to say "cleavage point" and not get slapped in the face for it!).

Anyway, I got sidetracked.  Sorry.  Back to the virus:  NA represents neuraminidase, the "escape artist" that allows the virus' clones to escape the hijacked cell.  MP refers to the surface protein that holds the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase spikes.

There had to be a genetic change that allowed for this virus to stop infecting pigs and start infecting humans big time.  I don't think anyone has found it yet.  But I sense that when they do, they will have unlocked quite a mystery whose dividends will be felt long after this virus has gone away.

You Twitterheads, or whatever you people call yourselves, can now get my comments and links on the 140-character social networking site.  I'm something like "@scottwmcpherson" or something like that.

You can also "follow me" from the link on the left side of this Blogsite.  Just scroll down to Twitter.

You'll get a lot of updates during the business day.  At night, I'm a normal human being again, reading Marvel comics, zombie novels or watching Fringe with the wife.  Isn't that what normal people do?  Well, we also watch American Idol (Adam's gonna win it) and Dancing with the Stars (Gilles/Lil' Kim tossup) so I'm not completely out there.....

Hurm.

The Los Angeles Times and the AP are both reporting that there are two deaths being attributed to swine influenza.  This is a MAJOR BREAKING STORY and everyone should stay tuned.

FoxNews is reporting that a Mexican citizen who came to Orlando to visit Disney World has been hospitalized with suspected swine flu. The mexican resident has been in the Greater Orlando area for a couple of days.

There is no word yet as to what park or parks the visitor frequented.

http://www.wftv.com/news/19311020/detail.html

Those of us who have been preaching pandemic preparedness for years are extremely and understandably interested to see how this entire swine flu situation unfolds. For us, the societal impact and response is almost as important (and perhaps more important) than the actual spread of the disease.

One element of pandemic preparedness and (now) mitigation is risk communication, or what you tell the public. And I am not at all sure that the government's risk communication aspect has been handled as smoothly or as honestly as it could.

Not at fault (yet) is the media. I have been very impressed with the coverage and the quality of reporting from NBC, CNN and FoxNews. Fox and NBC have relied upon Osterholm; CNN has Gupta On the Ground in Mexico City, and Fox has Geraldo warmed up in the bullpen to close. NBC's Bazell has been spot-on. These three networks have been quite good at educating the public and relating history.

These networks, however, will not "go it alone" and recommend certain actions unless and until the government does.  They are in the business of reporting news, not making policy.

What people want to know is exactly what to do right now. People are concerned-to-scared. Few people now are openly scoffing at the headlines since the WHO raised the pandemic threat level. That act by Geneva was, in and of itself, an act of risk communication.  It was an excruciatingly calibrated decision for the WHO to make. But they made it.

Why the decision-making angst in Geneva? The WHO has resisted the urge to raise the pandemic threat level for years. This blogger, along with hosts of others, have actively called for a Phase Four designation based solely on H5N1 human cases. Now, with the expansion of swine H1N1, that designation has been attained. And that is serendipitous good news for all who wanted stronger surveillance for all potential strains. Therefore, one "peace dividend" of the raising of the pandemic threat level may be to catch more human H5, H7 and H9cases.

The other dividend was clearly meant to get more Earthlings to take this threat more seriously. And that is the opening, the entree, that we cannot squander. To not use this opening that the WHO has given governments would be criminal.

So what should we be telling people? We should be telling them to prepare and to learn more about influenza. I am not talking about the Romero-esque TV commercials that the Ford Administration ordered up during the 1976 swine flu scare. I am talking about telling people to get their "hurricane kits" or "earthquake kits" restocked and brought up to speed. It is time to re-educate the American people on previous pandemics and previous near-misses, such as 1946 and 1951, with viruses that were also H1N1 but were much more virulent and, some thing, either swine-like or were actual swine influenzas that jumped the species barrier back in the day.

Telling people to buy one to two weeks' worth of food, water and medicines to prepare for hurricane season -- an annual hit-or-miss proposition with a clear historical precedent of occurrences -- is not considered folly; it is considered prudent.

Likewise, to tell people not to prepare similarly, in the face of the greatest threat to public health since SARS, also with a clear historical precedent, is equally prudent.

So why is everyone afraid to do so?

That brings up another issue: I wonder if anyone is testing this new swine flu against the antibodies of people who went through 1946 and 1951? Those people and their entire age group may be partially immune to this new strain and we may not even be aware of it. That may help explain the reason why older Mexicans and others are not falling in quantity.

By now, you should have a clear plan of action for Phase Four, Phase Five and the dreaded Phase Six. Phase Four should include beginning your "hurricane kit," or your all-hazards kit. It should include two weeks' worth of food, water and influenza and intestinal medicines and Gatorade to restore electrolytes. The Bush Administration was preaching this for three years, with not panflu threat! Emergency managers, including my very good friend and soon-to-be FEMA head Craig Fugate, have been preaching this Gospel of Personal Responsibility action item for years and years.

Why we are not telling people to do this nowis bizarre.

At some point, we need to tell people to update those kits and to prepare. To have told the American people to stock supplies from 2005 to 2008 and then NOT tell people to do so in the face of a potential pandemic sends a mixed message which is bad, bad, bad.

What I will call "cafeteria-style" preparedness also won't cut it. If you had a plan for Phase Four, stick to the plan. If that plan meant stocking, then stock. If it meant fleeing to the equator, bad timing, unless that's where you were headed anyway.

I can tell you that in my own plan, as one detail, I order a stop to all vacuuming in Phase Five. That is because vacuuming will stir up particles that had drifted to relative harmlessness on the rug, to dry out and become inert. Vacuuming reactivates those particles, kicks them up back into the air where they can be re-inhaled. Business and political leaders would do well to order the same action -- but in Phase Five.

As I mentioned in my Computerworld blog of 2008: For hurricanes and pandemics, plan one category higher.you need to assume ahead of the experts, the government spinmeisters and the virus/hurricane/calamity itself. You will never go wrong if you plan one category ahead of the approaching event.

If nothing else, you'll have a great ravioli supply for those midnight snacks if we all stand down.